As the trade war between Canada and the United States escalates, President Donald Trump is telling Canadians that the way out of the conflict is for their country to become the 51st state. So far, Maine’s relationship with its largest trading partner is intact, but Canadians view the trade war as an existential threat to their sovereignty. And because of that, the decades-long partnership between Maine and its neighbors to the north could undergo a seismic change.
When Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on American companies importing Canadian goods went into effect on March 4, New Brunswick Premier Susan Holt made sure to underscore to Canada’s CTV News the province’s close relationship with Maine.
“Many New Brunswickers and Mainers alike consider themselves neighbors, cousins,” she said.
But she paused briefly before adding, “You don’t treat your neighbors like this.”
Holt’s comments recall the old proverb that only friends — not enemies — are capable of betrayal. And it’s hard to overstate how keen that sentiment has been among Canadians since Trump initiated the trade war against America’s neighbor, ally, and friend.
Canadian political leaders directed their ire at Trump, not the American people.
And so far, Maine’s tight relationship with its neighbors has spared residents from sharper retaliatory measures that Holt and Quebec Premier François Legault can assess unilaterally — and in addition to the tariffs deployed by the Canadian government.
“I do think our relationships with Quebec, New Brunswick are very strong,” Maine State Chamber of Commerce President Patrick Woodcock said.
Woodcock has been encouraged by provincial leaders’ early reluctance to strike back in a way that could damage the state’s partnership with its neighbors. But he’s watching the situation closely as the rhetoric and retaliation intensify.
“We are always going to have a strong relationship with Quebec and New Brunswick, there’s no question,” he said. “How it perseveres during this period of turbulence is uncertain.”
That relationship is of critical importance to Maine. Canada is the state’s leading export destination, accounting for $1.4 billion worth of goods in 2024. And the state imports $5.1 billion from Canada, mostly in petroleum products.
More than 80 percent of the state’s gasoline and fuel oil is imported from Canada. New Brunswick also provides jet fuel to locations along the Eastern Seaboard. The Maine Air National Guard’s 101st Air Refueling Wing can’t fly without it — at least right now.
Holt told CTV News that tariffs on those products will be acutely felt in Maine.
“I think they will see quite quickly that it’s pretty tough to have your heating oil and your gas and your fuel to be more expensive,” she said.
And Holt and Quebec Premier Legault have other means of retaliation.
New Brunswick is the electricity provider for 58,000 Mainers who are not connected to the New England grid. And Legault has Hydro-Quebec, the government-owned electricity giant with supply contracts in New York and Vermont. It will have a third in Massachusetts when a transmission project running through Maine is completed.
Holt has said assessing surcharges on Mainers’ electricity, or turning it off completely, is an option of last resort.
But Ontario Premier Doug Ford has already gone there, issuing a 25 percent surcharge on the electricity it supplies to 1.5 million American homes.
“Believe me when I say I don’t want to do this. I feel terrible for the American people because it’s not the American people who started this trade war. It’s one person who’s responsible. It’s President Trump,” Ford said.
Ford has since rescinded the electricity surcharge, but his willingness to deploy it so soon highlights a nationalist sentiment rippling through Canada.
And it’s not just about trade policies and tariffs there. It’s about Canadian sovereignty.
Trump has said repeatedly he wants Canada to become the 51st state. It’s statement sometimes laughed off in the U.S., but viewed as deadly serious in Canada.
Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau addressed it during a press conference the day Trump initiated the trade war.
“The one thing he has said repeatedly is that what he wants to see is a total collapse of the Canadian economy. Because that will make it easier to annex us, is the second half of his thought. Now first of all, that’s never going to happen. We will never be the 51st state,” Trudeau said.
Trudeau’s comments weren’t speculative. Here’s how Trump responded when asked in January if he would use military force to invade Canada.
“No. Economic force. Because Canada and the United States … that would really be something,” he said.
The president’s comment ricocheted through the Canadian media, which has had wall-to-wall coverage of the trade war.
Canadian residents have mobilized, too. They’ve adopted the rally cry “elbows up,” a reference to hockey legend Gordie Howe, aka Mr. Hockey and Mr. Elbows.
Meanwhile, another Canadian hockey star, Wayne Gretsky, has been shunned by some. He’s friends with Trump.
Many also saw symbolism when photographer Mervyn Sequeira captured a scrap between a bald eagle and a Canadian goose on Lake Ontario. He later narrated the experience for the Canadian Broadcasting Corp.
“It was a 20-minute fight. The eagle kept repeatedly attacking and the goose was hissing and pecking as best it could,” Sequeira said.
Others are looking to Canadian history as they assess the stakes of the trade war.
“We can’t, in the pursuit of resolving this acute economic situation, allow for the erosion of the sharp edges of the maple leaf,” Newfoundland Premier Andrew Furey told the CBC earlier this month.
Furey framed the trade war as economic warfare and an attack on Canadian values and independence. He compared it to Newfoundland’s annexation by Canada in 1949 when the former British territory faced severe economic hardship.
“It’s economic circumstances that dictate dilution or relinquishing sovereignty,” he said.
The view that Trump is launching an economic assault on Canada is prevalent among the country’s political leaders. And some believe the president views Canada’s vast natural resources as a prize that’s his for the taking.
During a recent press conference, Quebec Premier Legault mentioned Trump’s threats to annex Greenland and force Ukraine to surrender its rare earth minerals in exchange for security guarantees against Russia, which invaded the country in 2022. Quebec is also rich in rare earth minerals and water.
“And I think Mr. Trump would like to get them with the dream that doesn’t make sense … having Canada as the 51st state. Doesn’t make sense. It won’t happen,” Legault said.
While Canadian leaders hope the trade war will be temporary, they aren’t taking chances. Much of their response has been designed to protect its businesses and people with the tariffs and surcharges it collects on U.S. imports.
Legault has said Quebec is exploring other business opportunities and partners if the trade war gets worse.
Holt, the New Brunswick premier, is doing the same.
“New Brunswick has resources and amazing people that the world needs. And so we’re ready to provide those products to new markets,” she said.
Business and political leaders say they are hopeful that those markets will continue to include Maine.
This article appears through a media partnership with Maine Public.
