Trump treads fine line between striking a deal and blackmailing Ukraine

Is this the art of the deal or the art of blackmail?

US President Donald Trump’s evening announcement to suspend US military aid to Ukraine came after a weekend through which the question had been: “He wouldn’t actually do that, would he?”

But given his actions over the past 43 days, his rhetoric during the campaign, and his truly transactional negotiating style, the answer was always to be “of course he would”.

It still doesn’t make the move any less dramatic.

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As late as Monday afternoon in the White House, the president claimed he hadn’t discussed the prospect of cutting or pausing American military weapons shipments to Ukraine.

But it was clear his anger and animosity against Volodymyr Zelenskyy after the Friday showdown had been growing.

And just an hour or two later on Monday, after a meeting with his defence and security officials (who are all wholly aligned to his thinking, unlike those in his first administration) he had paused all military aid.

Sources both sides of the Atlantic have told me this is just the latest step in his game of brinkmanship. The White House emphasis on “pause” is important and hints at the moves they expect Zelenskyy now to make.

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President Trump is determined to pressure President Zelenskyy to sign his minerals deal – the first step in his peace plan, which he eventually expects will culminate in Ukraine and Russia around a negotiating table.

He has not explained quite how this happens or what concessions Russian President Vladimir Putin might be asked to make.

In the immediate term, Trump wants to be able to hail the mineral deal as a massive win for the American people as a material return for the money they sent to fund Ukraine’s war, and as the first step to peace in Ukraine.

So much of this is about a domestic trumpeting of his successes as he sees them. He had hoped to do that tonight at his address to a joint session of Congress.

Zelenskyy is resisting not because he doesn’t want peace but because he wants American commitments that it has his back militarily if he is to enter into peace talks with an unreliable Putin which will require him to make concessions.

He wants American security guarantees. All of Europe wants those, while committing to spending more on defence themselves. They are alarmed that Trump won’t give them yet.

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Every European leader was privately appalled by Trump’s treatment of Zelenskyy last Friday. But some European diplomats have told me they think Zelenskyy took the bait when he could have reacted differently.

Zelenskyy’s friends in Europe may now be quietly telling him to shift position, mend the rift with Trump, sign his deal, commit to a ceasefire and then work, with them, to push Trump on the security guarantees.

In Trump’s brutally transactional world where, like it or not, he holds the cards, it may be the only way.