“The Seventh Carbon Budget Advice for the UK government” couldn’t sound more tedious.
But it is arguably the most consequential report to date for the UK’s economy and, perhaps, the political fortunes of Keir Starmer’s government.
The UK’s world-leading aim of cutting carbon emissions to zero by 2050 is colossally ambitious. And as Labour’s critics gleefully point out, potentially ruinous.
But what doesn’t get mentioned often enough is how, without anybody really noticing, we’ve already done half the work needed. Our emissions are already down 50%.
That was achieved by getting rid of coal and replacing an increasing share of gas-fired power generation with wind and solar power.
That was far from simple – and there is a lot left to do to deliver “the homegrown clean power” Labour campaigned on (not mentioning the fact they, or any other government, was legally required to do it anyway).
But it’s cutting the remaining 50% of emissions where things get interesting. Because from here on in, the path to net zero runs right into people’s homes, where billpayers and voters live.
And we’re going to notice it.
By 2038 to 2042, the majority of homes will need to have ditched their gas boiler for a heat pump, switched to an electric car, and probably be eating a bit less meat (cleverly, the committee expert invoked kebabs as the semi-official yardstick here: meat eating must fall from the equivalent of eight kebabs a week to six by 2050. A hardship most consumers would gladly stomach – perhaps less so if it was lamb chops or steak).
The advantages are multiple. EVs and heat pumps are inherently more efficient, less polluting, insulated from conflict-driven price shocks and – once you’ve paid for them – cheaper.
And there’s the rub. Because they’re so much more expensive now, the challenge for a cash-strapped government is how to help consumers with the upfront costs that benefit us all in the long run.
Read more:
How the climate fight is coming into your home
Ways the net zero push is impacting Britain’s economy
Unlike similar domestic technology roll-outs that happened just as fast – the internet, fridges, mobile phones – heat pumps and EVs won’t bring any immediate benefits into the home unless they are cheaper or better.
To make it happen, the government needs to make electricity much cheaper, and make the savings meaningful for consumers or companies who would gladly install, for example, a heat pump for free if a customer could pay them back over the lifetime of the product through bill savings and still come out on top compared to a gas boiler.
And for a government that has nailed net zero to its mast, there’s more to stomach than six kebabs a week.
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Critics are missing the point of net zero push
The gas lobby is already seething. The committee rules out hydrogen (a potential replacement for natural gas) as a climate-credible solution.
It also models making electricity cheaper by shifting the “policy costs” (essentially green levies and part of the warm homes levy) off the electricity part of bills where they currently sit and onto the gas part, making EVs and heat pumps immediately more affordable and gas boilers less so.
Then there’s the rising tide of anti-net zero sentiment from the right of British and international politics, whose message is: that saving the planet will ruin consumers, hobble the economy and is iniquitous given the UK has done so much already and we’re just a small contributor to global warming.
That’s kind of missing the point. Even if you forget the planet, what half-credible politician could tell voters they’re against newer, better technology that will ultimately make consumers and the wider economy healthier and better off?
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But it is understandable. Realising the benefits of new clean technologies either requires time, or higher upfront costs.
We also have to trust some technologies will improve – how are we all supposed to charge our EVs at a busy bank holiday service station?
Right now, though, trust, cash and – when it comes to carbon budgets – time, are in short supply.
