Sir Keir Starmer will this week go to Washington to try to help broker a just peace deal for Ukraine with a capricious president who in just a week has unwound a consensus that was born from the ashes of the Second World War and had endured for 70 years.
How the Ukraine-Russia deal is struck will affect not just Ukraine’s security, but the whole of Europe.
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It is, in the words of the prime minister, a generational moment – and he is the man who has to try to meet that moment in a week that could prove defining for his premiership.
His task is to try to persuade the US to offer security guarantees for Ukraine and contain rather than embolden an aggressive Russia.
He also has to use his trip to try to strengthen the trade relationship with the US and persuade Donald Trump to pause any potential tariffs for the UK.
His team have been war gaming all the scenarios, and the prime minister will go with a clear message on what the UK is asking of the US and what it can offer.
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How can PM woo Trump over Ukraine?
Sir Keir has already offered to put UK troops on the ground as part of any peacekeeping force and promised to increase UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP.
Trump is demanding markedly more from NATO allies, suggesting they should hit 5%, as expectations rise over the UK’s commitments on defence (Number 10 are refusing to comment, for now).
The prime minister will also, in a nod to Trump’s tilt to the Indo-Pacific, reiterate the UK’s commitment to AUKUS, the trilateral security partnership between the US, UK, and Australia.
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What Sir Keir and Europe need from Trump is some sort of US security backstop for Ukraine in any deal with Russia.
Up to now, Trump has parroted Vladimir Putin’s playbook, accusing Ukraine of starting the war (untrue) and Volodymyr Zelenskyy being a dictator (also untrue), while also ruling out Kyiv joining NATO and promising to normalise relations with Russia.
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From the phone call with Putin, to cutting Europe and Ukraine out negotiations in Saudi Arabia last week, Trump has played the role of a strongman carving up the world according to spheres of influence.
Part of Sir Keir’s job on Thursday will be to persuade Trump that in this vein of “great power transactional diplomacy”, Putin is not his equal and playing into his hands will not secure a stable peace.
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From MAGA to MEGA
On trade, new ambassador Lord Mandelson is talking up a “MEGA” deal (Make our Economies Great Again) by working up a proposal for increasing the £300bn worth of trade between the UK and US.
The hope is for the prime minister to come away from the White House with a commitment to begin a process of deepening trade and economic ties between London and Washington, which leads to a series of individual trade arrangements rather than a big bang deal that could take years to negotiate.
But if those are the aims, there is plenty of jeopardy for a UK government and the Number 10 team trying to plan a trip against the backdrop of a president they simply can’t predict.
Could a rift open between old allies?
When I asked one insider whether they thought Trump’s attacks on Zelenskyy were a ploy to bring Putin to the table, or the president’s real views, they said: “The honest answer is we don’t know and that is part of where we are right now.
“We need to get over there and get a better sense of the president’s red lines.”
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For now, the Number 10 team are focused less on what Trump says and more on what he does, with the understanding that if his starting position really is his endgame, there will be a rift between two old allies.
Sir Keir’s problems were already piling up before Trump’s entry into the White House, and he goes to Washington knowing further instability in Europe – and potential trade barriers with the UK’s second-biggest trading partner – only makes his already difficult task of delivering a “decade of national renewal” harder still.
The stakes couldn’t be higher, or more unpredictable.
