As the cycle progresses, many investors are awaiting the long-anticipated Altseason, with opinions split on whether it will happen. Several market watchers have affirmed that Altcoins (Alts) are getting ready for an explosive breakout, but others, including CryptoQuant’s CEO, have suggested a different outlook.
Few Cryptocurrencies To ‘Survive’ The Altseason
On Friday, Ki Young Ju, CryptoQuant’s founder and CEO, affirmed that the Altseason has begun. In an X thread, Ju suggested that there will not be a direct Bitcoin-to-alt rotation this cycle, noting that “stablecoin holders are favoring” Altcoins.
According to Ju, Bitcoin is no longer a quote cryptocurrency, adding that Bitcoin (BTC) Dominance doesn’t define the altseason anymore. In a December post, he explained that “Altcoins used to move together based on their correlation with BTC,” however, this pattern has now broken.
Instead, he stated that trading volume is the metric that defines it, with Altcoins currently having 2.7x the volume of Bitcoin. Ju also considers this to be a very selective and challenging altseason, with only a few Altcoins with strong user cases and narratives expected to thrive.
He added that, despite good market sentiment, there isn’t fresh liquidity, which “feels like a PvP fight over a fixed pie.” As a result, Altcoin battles “are getting fiercer,” and only a few are pumping this altseason and attracting new liquidity.
Altcoin markets are currently a zero-sum PvP game. While Bitcoin has doubled its market cap, the alt market cap is still below its previous ATH, rotating among themselves without fresh capital inflows. Only a few Alts with strong use cases and narratives will survive.
Altcoins Ready For Next Leg Up
Trader Crypto Yoddha suggested that Altcoins are “ready for round 2” after its recent performance. According to the post, the crypto market, excluding BTC and ETH, is following 2020-2021’s playbook.
During the last cycle, Altcoins experienced two legs towards its cycle top and all-time high (ATH) of $1.13 trillion. In the “first round,” they broke out from its accumulation period, seeing a small re-accumulation phase before surging to the previous top.
After reclaiming this resistance level, Altcoins started “round two,” achieving various new highs before hitting a new cycle top. Yoddha pointed out that the market is finishing the first round, as it tested last cycle’s top during the post-election pump.
Analyst Rekt Capital affirmed that the crypto market cap, excluding the top 10 tokens, “has completed the second part of its Double Bottom formation.” He explained that Altcoins had been consolidating between the $250 billion to $280 billion range since the February 3 correction.
Per the post, Alts must close above $280 billion and retest this level as support to confirm a breakout from its three-week resistance and attempt to reclaim the $300 billion mark.
Similarly, analyst Carl Runefelt stated that Altcoins have a parabolic move after breaking out of its two-month descending channel. Alts saw a 120% climb after breaking out of a 2024 multi-month descending channel. Altcoins must reclaim the $300 billion resistance to break from this pattern.
