Amid the recent market shakeouts, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown strength, remaining near the crucial $100,000 barrier during its drops. While the flagship cryptocurrency is momentarily expected to continue its horizontal trajectory, some analysts forecast that BTC’s next leg up might start once it reclaims the recently lost key level.
Bitcoin Volatility Lower Than Q1 2024
The post-election pump saw the crypto market jump to new highs, with Bitcoin leading the climb. Two months ago, the flagship cryptocurrency crossed the $100,000 barrier for the first time, hitting $108,000 in mid-December.
However, the market has seen several significant shakeouts since then, which has halted investors’ sentiment. Following its December peak, the flagship crypto recorded a 14% retrace, sending its price to the lower zone of its $90,000-$108,000 post-election range.
In early January, BTC recorded a similar pullback after reclaiming the $100,000, falling nearly 13% before rebounding. Mid-month, Bitcoin retraced another 10% after hitting its latest all-time high (ATH) of $109,588 but held the $100,000 mark in the following days.
However, the most recent correction saw BTC fall 14% from its Friday high of $106,000 and nearly 10% in 24 hours, triggering the largest single-day of crypto liquidations. Despite these retraces, Bitcoin has bounced from the local lows and continues to move within the mid-zone of its post-election range.
Market observer Daan Crypto Trades noted that BTC’s volatility has been “relatively low” in the past few weeks, especially compared to the start of 2024.
The cryptocurrency saw more violent swings when Bitcoin passed the $70,000 region in March, retracing up to 20% during these corrections. Since then, Volatility has “slowly dwindled” while Bitcoin’s price has been “creeping higher this cycle.”
Bitfinex analysts previously noted the cycle’s “unique” conditions that drove the diminishing trend. According to the report, mainstream recognition, institutional adoption, and increasing confidence in the sector have kept BTC’s corrections smaller than past cycles, likely to continue for the rest of the bull run.
Is A Takeoff Coming Soon?
As BTC’s price continues to move sideways within its range, the flagship crypto looks “much stronger” than most of the market, “still looking perfectly fine when zooming out.” Daan added that “the demand for BTC is just so much higher compared to the rest of the market, especially during times of uncertainty.”
However, crypto analyst Miles Deutscher highlighted that BTC’s search interest “is still sitting way below 2021 levels, despite sitting just under $100k.” This suggests that institutions are fueling the Bitcoin bull run while it is “no longer reliant on retail mania to pump BTC prices.”
Meanwhile, crypto analyst Jelle stated that Bitcoin is playing out similarly to Q1 2024, listing the “choppy” period, liquidity being taken out, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) retests as “flashing” signals again.
This performance preceded the flagship crypto’s breakout to its March 2024 ATH and, if history repeats, could signal a price takeoff soon. Nonetheless, Jelle added that $100,000 remains the level to break and hold before any major price move.
