Donald Trump’s threat that “all hell will break loose” if the Gaza hostages aren’t released by his inauguration is, by my calculation, the third time he’s used similar language since winning November’s US presidential election.
It’s also a phrase that has been used in different contexts, notably in June 2024 as part of a fundraising text to supporters ahead of one of his court trials and by aides and spokespeople during the campaign trail.
It’s typically dramatic of him and plays to his reputation of being unpredictable, a trait that can be quite effective here in the Middle East.
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But Trump has given no indication what he has in mind if his threat doesn’t work, and it’s hard to see what his options are.
The situation in Gaza is already truly dire for Palestinians living there.
There are some in Israeli political circles who have suggested withholding aid deliveries to starve Hamas into surrender, but it is hard to imagine the US president tacitly allowing that, with all the international legal consequences that would have.
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Trump’s threats might be directed at Iran’s leadership, but it’s questionable how much real influence they still have over a severely depleted Hamas in Gaza and Trump, who dislikes wars, is unlikely to strike Tehran and risk plunging US forces into a new Middle East conflict within weeks of taking office.
Further sanctions on Iran are unlikely to yield quick results either – the Islamic Republic’s leaders have proven quite resilient to that over the years.
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Taking action against Qatar, which does have a direct line to Hamas, could backfire as the largest US airbase in the Middle East is just outside Doha and the small state is an important security and economic partner.
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Truth is, “all hell will break loose” is a phrase commonly used by Trump, in different scenarios, to scare opponents.
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The more he uses it, without results, the less effective and threatening it becomes, and the bottom line is that if it doesn’t work with Hamas then Trump will find he has few options beyond painstaking negotiation and diplomacy which actually might, slowly, be starting to yield results.
