Unions have hinted at a return to industrial action after a recommendation that teachers, NHS staff and other public sector workers should get a 2.8% pay rise next year.
The Royal College of Nursing (RCN) said the figure amounted to “as little as £2 extra a day” and urged the government to open talks to “avoid further disruption and ballots”.
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The National Education Union (NEU) said it was putting ministers on notice that the amount “won’t do”, while the British Medical Association (BMA) accused the new Labour administration of failing to grasp unresolved issues from two years of strikes under the Tories.
The figure was revealed in evidence to various pay review bodies published on Tuesday.
The Department of Health and Social Care said 2.8% was “a reasonable amount to have set aside” for NHS staff based on current economic forecasts, the current fiscal conditions and the state of the labour market.
The Department for Education (DfE) made the same case, saying a 2.8% raise “would be appropriate” and “maintain the competitiveness of teachers’ pay”.
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It would follow a 5.5% pay award for 2024/25 that has meant a combined increase of over 17% over the last three pay awards, the DfE added.
The Cabinet Office said it should be the same for senior civil servants, noting the Treasury has made clear that there will be no additional funding to departments for 2025/26 pay awards.
Inflation is predicted to average 2.5% this year and 2.6% next year, according to forecasts from the Office of Budget Responsibility.
Pay disputes brought many public services to a halt towards the end of the Conservatives’ time in office, with nurses, paramedics, teachers, junior doctors, consultants, physiotherapists, civil servants and border staff among those who went on strike to demand higher wages in the face of the cost of living crisis.
The junior doctors’ walk-outs came to an end shortly after the general election, when they were offered a 22.3% pay rise over two years.
The new government also accepted the pay recommendations of the independent Pay Review Bodies (PRBs), meaning that public sector employees will see their pay increase by between 4 and 6% for the year 2024-25.
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This increase was in line with forecast pay growth in the private sector, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said – though it noted that in real terms public sector pay is still below where it was in 2010.
‘Less than the price of coffee’
Some of the strongest criticism of next year’s offer came from the RCN, who said 2.8% was a “deeply offensive” figure.
“The government has today told nursing staff they are worth as little as £2 extra a day, less than the price of a coffee,” said the head of the union, Professor Nicola Ranger.
“Let’s open direct talks now and avoid further escalation to disputes and ballots – I have said that directly to government today.”
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Meanwhile, the NEU’s general secretary Daniel Kebede said a “sky-high workload” and real-terms pay cuts “have resulted in a devastating recruitment and retention crisis” within the teaching sector.
Hinting at industrial action he said: “NEU members fought to win the pay increases of 2023 and 2024.
“We are putting the government on notice. Our members care deeply about education and feel the depth of the crisis. This won’t do.”
Unison said the proposed 2.8% rise was “barely above the cost of living”, while Unite said that the NHS recruitment and retention crisis “will not be solved without taking the issue of restorative pay seriously”.
And the BMA warned: “When doctors accepted their pay offers this summer, the government was under no illusion about the need to continue to reverse the effects of pay erosion, the path set to achieve that in future pay rounds, and the very real risk of further industrial action if this was not achieved.”
