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Amy Fried is a retired political science professor at the University of Maine. Her views are her own and do not represent those of any group with which she is affiliated.
What’s going to happen in the upcoming elections? Well, I won’t offer a prediction of the results. But there are some things I can foresee.
First, whoever wins the presidential election, Donald Trump will declare himself the winner. He’s long done this.
In 2016 Trump claimed U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz “stole” the Iowa caucuses, saying the results should be “nullified.”
And of course Trump said he won after losing to Joe Biden in 2020. According to an evidentiary document filed by Special Counsel Jack Smith, “a White House staffer traveling” with Trump “overheard him tell family members ‘It doesn’t matter if you won or lost the election. You still have to fight like hell.’”
Despite losing dozens of lawsuits, Trump still claims he won in 2020. He also promotes conspiracy theories about the 2024 election.
Second, if Trump clearly wins, Vice President Kamala Harris will do what Hillary Clinton did in 2016; i.e., concede her loss.
Third, if he loses, Trump will do whatever he can to take office anyway.
One path will be to rile up his backers, making violence and unrest quite possible — and not only at the U.S. Capitol.
On January 6, 2021, Trump protestors acted all around the country. As the New York Times reported then, “In Washington State, a crowd of Trump supporters, some of them armed, breached the fence surrounding the governor’s residence and approached the building before state troopers mobilized to keep them away.” In Georgia, Texas, Oregon and Michigan there were physical altercations, militia gatherings and police steps to protect elected officials.
Would Trump backers again act violently? They might, given the fascist rhetoric Trump uses to describe political opponents, such as “the enemy within.” Then again, they may be dissuaded by the convictions of Jan. 6 insurrection participants.
Another effort involves trying to get election officials to stop the certification of the vote. In Georgia, the state election board, controlled by Republicans, gave themselves this power and were complimented by Trump. However, Georgia judges recently ruled those steps were illegal and unconstitutional
Moreover, like 2020, it’s quite possible Trump will again try to organize fraudulent slates of electors and ask Republicans in Congress to accept those. Consider that Christina Bobb, who was indicted in Arizona for participating in this election fraud, is now a counsel for “election integrity” operations for the Republican National Committee.
One way Trump could lose the election but become president would be by, as Politico reported, ensuring “Harris is denied 270 votes in the Electoral College, sending the election to the House, where Republicans are likely to have the numbers to choose Trump as the next president.”
How possible are these congressional efforts? Constitutional law professor Richard Pildes argues that illegitimate congressional steps are now prohibited by the Electoral Count Reform Act. Others are highly concerned, depending on who wins congressional races. Yet few congressional candidates have been asked about this.
Fourth, for the outcome of the election and many other matters, the courts will matter. The current U.S. Supreme Court has been aggressive, controversially overturning major precedents and granting unprecedented power to the president. While the Supreme Court took care in 2020 elections not to overstep state and lower federal courts, a Bush v. Gore type decision could determine who is president.
A substantial win for Harris would make Trump post-election shenanigans less likely to succeed.
Fifth, whoever becomes president will again inherit a very good economy from a Democratic president, as occurred after George W. Bush succeeded Bill Clinton and Trump followed Barack Obama and then had worse economic records.
As the Wall St. Journal reported, economists evaluating the economic plans of Harris and Trump say that inflation and deficits would be lower under Harris.
Economic plans developed by Harris include lowering costs for housing, food and prescription drugs, and helping people start small businesses and creating generational wealth.
Trump’s tariff and immigration policies would raise prices and lower growth. Moreover, statements and actions by Trump raise the specter that “a second Trump administration might use the enormous power the federal government wields over private industry to punish” them for political reasons, ethics experts told the Washington Post.
We do not know who will win the 2024 elections, but there are potential dangers ahead, both for our economy and body politic.
