After Lebanon’s bloodiest day in almost two decades, the big question is whether this is the start of a much bigger war.
Central to that is the arsenal of 150,000 missiles Hezbollah is thought to have at its disposal.
Does it have the ability and the intent to use them? If the answer is yes to both, the region is in for a devastating conflict that will send shockwaves around the world and could engulf the Middle East in war.
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Western and Israeli intelligence agencies believe the Shiite militia has somewhere near that number of missiles secreted in the hills of southern Lebanon.
Among them are an estimated 10,000 long-range precision-guided missiles that could wreak havoc on the length and breadth of Israel.
The question has been whether Hezbollah will end up letting loose that awesome arsenal. So far, it has fired only a limited number in an almost daily exchange with Israel over the northern border.
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So, does it have the ability to do so now? Israel has done major damage to its capabilities in the past week, taking out key commanders and the communications system it would use to coordinate such an attack.
The recent pager and walkie-talkie blitzes have degraded Hezbollah substantially. But it’s not just its technical ability that is important – using those missiles in earnest would need permission from Iran.
Hezbollah’s patrons in Tehran have supplied and paid for much of its aerial armoury. The group depends on Iranian money and patronage to maintain its power and strength.
Observers have long assumed Iran wants to keep the missiles for another day, as insurance for the time Israel attacks its own nuclear facilities.
Is that about to change given Israel’s unprecedented onslaught?
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Clues can be found in the words of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, who is in New York for the United Nations General Assembly. He has accused Israel of “laying traps” and wanting a wider war.
But his tone was not belligerent. The implications of his comments were that Iran will not fall for such traps. Prime among them would surely be letting Hezbollah squander that armoury of missiles in response to Israel’s provocations.
Iran’s leader certainly wasn’t urging Iran’s allies Hezbollah to up the ante. Outside powers will find that reassuring – up to a point.
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War is not an exact science. Hezbollah is a disciplined organisation, but is now in disarray. It has been provoked like never before by Israel in recent days.
Could it still be goaded into much more devastating action? If it retains some ability to unleash its firepower in earnest, its leaders may still be tempted to do so.
This remains a very dangerous moment for the region and further afield.
