Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 US Presidential Election have declined on Polymarket, marking their lowest level since May.
The former President’s probability of winning now stands at 51%, down from earlier levels. In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris’ odds have continued rising in the last two weeks and now stand at 47%, suggesting a closer race as the election nears.
Meanwhile, Polymarket now indicates a 90% chance that Trump and Harris will debate before the election, an increase of 18% from earlier estimates. This anticipated debate is expected to further influence market sentiments and voter opinions as both candidates prepare to present their platforms to the public.
PredictIt, a non-crypto prediction market, mirrors the shifting sentiment. Kamala Harris currently leads with the latest price of 56 cents, up by 1 cent, while Trump’s price has fallen to 47 cents, down by 1 cent. This marks the widest margin between Harris and Trump since Harris’s nomination as the Democratic candidate.
Other candidates, including Robert Kennedy Jr. and Ron DeSantis, trail significantly. Each is priced at just 1 cent, indicating minimal confidence in their chances of winning the presidency.
Walz turns the table
The latest shift in sentiment comes after Harris announced that Minnesota Governor Tim Walz would be her running mate and VP.
The pattern echoes a similar trend observed in May when an agreement between President Joe Biden and Trump to hold a debate caused market fluctuations.
Walz, a former schoolteacher and military veteran, is seen as a strong choice that appeals to the Democratic base and swing voters alike. His selection has already garnered major endorsements from labor unions and key Democratic figures, adding momentum to Harris’s campaign.
Conversely, the Trump campaign has struggled to find an effective line of attack against Walz. Initial attempts to label him as “far left” have largely fallen flat, given his Midwestern roots and moderate political stance. This has left the GOP scrambling to adjust its strategy as the election nears.
Despite the fall in Trump’s chances, the election forecast on Polymarket shows him leading in several states, particularly the Midwest and the South, while Harris holds a strong lead on the West Coast and the Northeast.
The battleground states remain highly contested and will be crucial in determining the final outcome.
Election betting frenzy
Polymarket has experienced remarkable growth amid the election betting frenzy, with its total trading volume surpassing $1 billion for the first time in July. The total amount of bets riding on Trump vs. Harris has ballooned to roughly $539 million as of press time, up from $445 million in the previous week.
However, the significant increase in election betting has caused some lawmakers to raise concerns about the trend. Several legislators, including Elizabeth Warren, have urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to ban gambling on American elections, emphasizing the negative impact on public trust and democracy.
The legislators criticized the “commodification” of elections, warning that such practices could undermine the integrity of the electoral process and allow political insiders to exploit non-public information for personal gain. They pressed for the immediate implementation of a proposed rule to protect the sanctity of US elections.
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