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Kamala Harris’ selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her vice presidential running mate may be the first mistake in her nascent presidential campaign.
There is nothing inherently wrong with Walz, of course. While I don’t agree with him on much of anything, he is a fairly standard-issue Democratic politician. To be complimentary of him, he is obviously a fairly serious person (which is almost refreshing in our increasingly ridiculous political culture), he is a reasonably successful politician both electorally and as governor, and he is most certainly qualified to be president.
Actually, in many ways (outside of his stridently left-wing ideology) he is exactly what I want in a political leader today. For years, I’ve been bemoaning the lack of “boring people” in politics, happy-go-lucky, reasonable, decent people who don’t have any impulses to exploit the overly emotional American political psyche and kind of just do their job. On the Republican side, I was kind of hoping that North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum would be selected as the vice presidential nominee precisely because he is inoffensively boring.
Sad as it is to say, though, it is that “boringness” that ultimately makes this selection a mistake. Allow me to explain.
Going back several weeks, the Democratic Party was flailing. President Joe Biden had put in a terrible debate performance, his post-debate interviews and speeches had done nothing to convince people that he was going to be able to make it through another four years. Polls were grim and getting worse.
What was the real problem, though? A lot of evidence points to a loss of enthusiasm within the Democratic Party itself, and the general population as a whole. Biden’s erosion, it appears, was to a large degree driven by large drops in the planned participation of his own people. In 2008 and 2012, the Democratic success was driven by unparalleled excitement for Barack Obama, and in 2020, it was driven by unparalleled motivation to defeat Donald Trump.
The Democrats needed to get that energy back if they had any hope of winning in 2024. When Biden made the choice to step out of the race and Harris became the presumptive nominee, they got a mainline shot of political adrenaline to their hearts, and ever since they have seen a revival of their lost passion.
That renewal, as I told you two weeks ago, is artificial, driven by the unique moment we are living through, and it is going to be fleeting. Harris is likely going to own the month of August, as she sets up her campaign, raises huge money, picks her running mate and holds a unified Democratic Party pep rally at her convention. That will result in great headlines, the aura of momentum being behind her and very little criticism.
But afterward, like waking up after a big party the night before, there will likely be a hangover. The race will return to Earth. Harris will need all of the tools in the toolbox to maintain Democratic enthusiasm, and the choice of Walz, with due respect to the Democrats who are attempting to convince themselves that it is an exciting pick, is going to melt into the background, and ultimately be meaningless in the end. With due respect to Walz’s supposed appeal to somewhat-conservative rural voters, that appeal doesn’t seem to actually exist, and it would really only apply if he was on the top of the ticket anyway.
In November, when people head into the voting booth, few will remember that he even exists. Harris did have another option at her disposal that may have actually mattered, though. Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania has all of the presidential qualifications that Walz has, but is younger, far more exciting and dynamic, is a better attack dog against the Republicans, and clearly makes the Democrats swoon. More importantly, he is a fairly popular governor of Pennsylvania, one of the most important swing states in this election. Shapiro had the potential to be a meaningful add to the enthusiasm and strength of the campaign.
Vice presidential choices are, in general, largely irrelevant, but a milquetoast choice like Walz will obviously be little more than a background character in the campaign. This election is going to be about people’s perceptions of Harris as a potential president, weighed against Trump.
