AUGUSTA, Maine — State Rep. Austin Theriault will face U.S. Rep. Jared Golden of Maine’s 2nd District after a Tuesday rout that headlined the state’s list of contested primaries.
Primaries are much different than the general elections that follow them. This could be particularly true with the divisive race coming between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, who twice won the conservative-leaning 2nd District.
Yet Trump’s influence was on full display in Maine, where some of the primaries were indicative of the Republicans and Democrats moving in two different directions. But even that came with exceptions, as is normal in political races that account for more than just ideology.
Here are three quick lessons from Tuesday’s primaries.
In a shallow pool of Republican voters, Trump’s influence carried the day.
Theriault, a former NASCAR driver from Fort Kent, entered the race in September with support from top House Republicans. He got Trump’s endorsement in March. He raised 10 times more money than state Rep. Mike Soboleski of Phillips, his primary opponent. A super PAC funded by old racing allies sent mailers and ran text message campaigns on Theriault’s behalf.
All of those signs pointed to an easy Theriault win. Yet his campaign and allies were continuing to attack Soboleski into Election Day. In the afternoon, a well-connected Republican source told me they expected a single-digit race. Yet Theriault won roughly two-thirds of the votes. (Sometimes, none of us really know what’s going on in politics.)
He won pretty much everywhere, including towns close to Soboleski’s Franklin County home base. This was despite Soboleski’s more traditionally conservative voting record in Augusta and a network of Republican legislators working actively to boost his candidacy.
Not all towns have reported results yet, but we’re expecting a little over 25 percent turnout on the Republican side in 2nd District. Trump’s endorsement was one of the big things that cut through. We heard it cited by voters in Bangor and Theriault’s hometown.
“Trump is abrasive and a jerk, but he’s a businessman and ran the country great,” Rodney Edwards, a 67-year-old retiree from Bangor, said after explaining his vote.
The Legislature will keep polarizing, but that’s not monolithic.
The Maine Legislature does a lot on a bipartisan basis, looking rather functional even at its worst compared with Congress. But it is on a long-term trend toward polarization, with lawmakers bucking their parties far less than they did a decade or more ago.
Primaries are a player in this. In perhaps the biggest legislative primary of the night, Rep. Bruce White, D-Waterville, lost his seat to challenger Cassie Julia after Planned Parenthood’s political group spent thousands on the race while seizing on White’s opposition to Democratic abortion expansions.
“Voters sent a clear message Tuesday: We expect our elected leaders to protect our reproductive rights and freedoms and if you do not, we will exercise our right to replace you with someone who will,” Lisa Margulies, a spokesperson for Planned Parenthood’s political arm, said in a statement.
It was a purity test of sorts that led White to point to the rising influence of Planned Parenthood and progressives. But there were counterexamples to that trend on Tuesday night, with centrist Rep. Joe Perry, D-Bangor, easily holding his seat in the face of a challenge from lawyer Zachary Smith, who was endorsed by the Maine People’s Alliance.
Perry wasn’t targeted with money like White was, but it still shows that lawmakers with strong local ties can win the day in this charged era.
Don’t read much into Maine’s low turnout.
Turnout looked brutal throughout this election, from the tiny absentee voting figures to the pictures of a near-empty Cross Insurance Center in Bangor on Election Day.
We’re not used to this in Maine, where we have some of the highest voter participation rates in the country. Ahead of November, both parties will be running aggressive absentee ballot programs and field operations fueled by the presidential race in the swing 2nd District.
That will torque turnout across the board, especially relative to our set of sleepy primaries dating back to March. While Americans are not excited about the Biden-Trump rematch, there’s no indication that a large share of voters will sit things out. Mainers will be back in force.
