Labour’s ming vase strategy means avoiding risk at nearly all costs so the poll lead doesn’t drop and smash, with the party prioritising reassurance over controversy wherever possible.
That was the point of the letter in The Times from 120 business leaders backing Labour’s growth plans. That is behind the limited and specific tax rises promised in the manifesto.
But the principal challenge for a future Labour government is visible from space.
If they get into power, do they squeeze public services for five years using the plans developed by Jeremy Hunt – and risk disappointing voters and an expectation the party will fund public services more – or do they borrow more, and risk breaking newly announced and eye-wateringly severe fiscal rules? Or do they do what voters have long associated with Labour, and turn to tax rises?
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That is the question at the heart of this election.
My Sky News interview with shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves reveals more detail on what could happen – both by analysing what she does say, and from noting the questions that she sidesteps.
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First, she confirms the areas where Labour will definitely raise taxes. She tells me that’s “business rates and VAT on private school fees, the commitment to crack down on tax avoidance and ensure non-doms pay their fair share of tax”.
Critically, she then adds: “That is the sum total of the tax increases that we are putting forward” – that’s it before the election for “planned” tax rises.
Secondly, she makes a blanket commitment that there will be no rises to three specific taxes through this parliament – income tax, national insurance and corporation tax. These are three of the biggest – but note the lack of VAT on this list, which is already being extended in one area, to private schools.
Thirdly, she says that she has “no plans” to raise other taxes.
However, in the same interview, she also says there is “no… need to fill any black holes”.
This is key – because it appears not everyone in Labour agrees.
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Are there ‘many billions’ unaccounted for?
Sir Keir Starmer’s chief of staff Sue Gray has reportedly drawn up a “risk register” – dubbed in the Financial Times as her “s*** list” – of possible emergency spending challenges on the other side of an election.
These include having to deal with councils going bust, prisons overflowing, account for the inflected blood compensation scheme which has not appeared on the books, universities going under and settling the public sector strikes.
This amounts to many many billions in potential unaccounted bills.
When I pressed on whether, for example, VAT could go up if there were black holes in the accounts if Labour gets in, Ms Reeves sidestepped the question.
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She told me: “I’m not going to write a budget here. But I’ve been very clear about the tax changes that are needed to fund the plans that we’ve put forward.”
In other words, existing tax rises account for existing spending commitments – but she declines to address the issue of an unexpected black hole and does not rule out some taxes rising in this eventuality.
She also says: “We have no plans for increased taxes” – note the emphasis on “plans”, which famously in politics can change.
She is clearly trying to avoid the conversation if at all possible pre-election, however.
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Why decisions now really matter
This may be sensible politics – and it may get Labour through the election.
However, Labour are also likely to hold their hands up in horror at the government accounts if they make it into power.
Ms Reeves is bound to emerge declaring Tory betrayal in the opening weeks of a Labour government, accusing them of covering up the scale of the financial challenge and warning that difficult choices must now be made.
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None of which they ruled out during the campaign itself, thereby potentially giving themselves the figleaf of a mandate to put up some taxes.
Therefore what taxes she refuses to rule out raising now really matters.
The shadow chancellor also said today there would not be a summer budget, giving Labour until the autumn to find what they will dub the horrors left behind by Rishi Sunak.
At that point their declaration they have “no plans” to raise taxes could crumble. Mark this moment.
