While XRP attempts to hold a crucial area, some analysts have pointed to key indicators that could dictate whether the recent pullback is temporary or marks the start of a deeper correction.
XRP Rally Faces Critical Resistance
On Tuesday, XRP continued its recent decline, falling to the $1.35 area, its lowest level since late April. The cryptocurrency has been trading between $1.36 and $1.50 over the past month, attempting to break out of the upper boundary on multiple occasions.
Last Thursday, the altcoin rallied above this key resistance on the CLARITY Act progress, reaching a two-month high of $1.54. However, the price was quickly rejected from this level, tracing roughly 12% over the past five days.
As the altcoin retested the $1.35 area, market observer ChartNerd stated that XRP risks another price correction toward new lows, affirming that “the data speaks for itself.” The analyst highlighted some concerning signals for the altcoin’s rally, including a major resistance area above and the confirmation of a death cross in the weekly Stoch RSI.
He pointed out that the weekly 20 and 50 EMAs, sitting at $1.50 and $1.80, are two crucial resistance levels that had not been retested since their January 2026 crossover, which led to XRP’s drop to its February low of $1.11.
He also noted that the weekly Stoch RSI crossover has previously marked a local top for XRP, with the last two crosses producing deeper corrections and the latest one coinciding with the relief rally that led to the weekly EMA death cross four months ago.
After the recent rally to $1.54, the price has now retested the weekly 20 EMA for the first time since the January crossover. A failure to successfully break above this level and turn it into sustained support “will likely open the next leg down later this year,” the analyst said.
‘Next Big Move’ Targets $1?
ChartNerd emphasized XRP must reclaim both EMAs and turn them into support to invalidate the bearish scenario, but added that “it just doesn’t feel like the right time yet.”
Even if the altcoin breaks toward $1.80, the analyst considers that the price will likely fail to hold it long-term and “at least come back to, at a minimum, fill in most of this wick back down towards the lower dollar levels.”
He has explained that a rejection from these EMAs could potentially send the altcoin toward a cycle bottom of $0.70, as it is a previous level of macro resistance that hasn’t been retested yet.
Meanwhile, analyst Ali Martinez affirmed that XRP is ready for a big price move. He highlighted that the altcoin has been developing the “tightest Bollinger Band squeeze” on the three-day chart in over a year, calling the current compression zone a “definitive ‘no-trade zone.’”
He noted that when volatility compresses this tightly, “it’s a signal that a violent price expansion is approaching.” Therefore, the market observer advised investors to wait for a clean three-day candlestick close out of XRP’s current range, between $1.29 and $1.50, to confirm the next major trend direction.
A close above the upper boundary would signal an expansion toward the $1.80 is likely. On the contrary, a breakdown from the lower boundary would invalidate the immediate bullish structure and open the door for a deeper correction toward the $1.00 psychological support.
