Volatility and upside have been declining with each Bitcoin halving cycle, but the new dynamics may not be permanent, according to Galaxy’s Alex Thorn.
The current Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle is “dramatically” weaker than the three previous cycles, according to Alex Thorn, the head of firmwide research at investment firm Galaxy.
Thorn compared price action since the April 2024 Bitcoin halving to cycles triggered in 2012, 2016 and 2020; the current cycle shows significantly dampened volatility and lower upside. The all-time high above $125,000 on Oct. 5, 2025 was only 97% above the 2024 halving price around $63,000.
BTC’s price increased by about 9,294% during the 2012 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $1,163, and climbed by about 2,950% during the 2016 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $19,891. The 2020 halving saw a price increase of about 761%.
