Iran’s new supreme leader has tried to turn the page on this conflict – but his demands are unlikely to be listened to.
For five days there’s been mounting speculation about the health of Mojtaba Khamenei after he was reportedly injured in an air strike on the first day of the war which killed his father, wife and son.
Now a lengthy message has been read out from the ayatollah on state television. That message doesn’t really answer the questions about his health as we don’t see or hear from him.
But it does spell out that Iran is well aware its ace card is delivering economic paralysis to the region instead of winning the military fight with Israel and America.
There’s no doubt that Iran’s effective shutting down of the vital oil shipping lane the Strait of Hormuz has worked. And that won’t stop. At the same time Iran – and through its proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah, is still managing to launch missiles towards Israel.
Now the supreme leader is demanding his Gulf neighbours kick out American forces from bases across the region. If they do, the attacks on those many Gulf countries, from Bahrain to the United Arab Emirates, will likely stop.
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The Iranians have had years to put together a strategy for winning this war. But the plan and the extent to which they’ve attacked their neighbours has taken many by surprise.
From the ayatollah’s statement today, it’s clear they know that tactic is working – and they plan to double down on the non-military pressure threatening to ‘attack’ their enemies on ‘other fronts’.
This could potentially mean sectors such as banking.
It’s also clear from the statement that their narrative contains no notes of pragmatism – no undertone of peace.
Of course, that was to be expected when we did finally hear the first words of the man anointed to the top of the regime.
A regime still standing, and which increasingly it seems Israel is accepting, won’t fall any time soon.
