It’s make or break this week for averting war between America and Iran.
The region is heading for a crunchpoint. The next seven days could lead to conflict between Iran, the US and its allies, or the start of a diplomatic breakthrough.
It is likely to be one or the other.
President Trump seems to believe the Iranian government is in a hole and can only get out if it makes a deal with him.
To make sure of that, he has parked a massive amount of naval firepower off the coast of Iran. Is his calculation a sound one?
Over the weekend, there were some signs from both sides of progress towards diplomacy. But more worryingly, both America and Iran were also talking tough.
“Hopefully we’ll make a deal,” the US president said over the weekend. If not, he warned, “we have the biggest most powerful ships in the world over there”.
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He was responding to fighting talk from the country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who said: “If America attacks or harms Iran, the Iranian nation will deliver a strong blow and any war started by America will spread across the region.”
That was a thinly veiled attack to drag the whole region into war should Iran come under fire. Attack us, and we will attack you and your friends, he was saying.
Iranian missiles could play havoc with oil and gas installations in Gulf states, which could have profound economic consequences for the world.
Fury over deadly protests
Iranian authorities are certainly in a hole. The country is in economic freefall with runaway inflation and a plummeting currency. That has led to massive protests which were in turn crushed with astonishing brutality.
The Iranian government claims it shot only at foreign agitators and Zionist agents but appears to have killed between ten and 50,000 of its own people with live gunfire in the process.
Among the dead documented on video are small children, mothers, young students and ordinary citizens, gunned down on their own streets.
Sources inside the country say the mood in Iran’s major cities is subdued, simmering fury over the multiple massacres carried out by its state security services.
The Iranian government will regard President Trump’s demands as tantamount to capitulation.
It insists its nuclear programme is only for civilian reasons, even if very few believe that claim. But giving up the programme is a red line for the ayatollahs.
Airstrikes seem likely
Giving in to American pressure could be fatal for what remains of the Iranian government’s standing. It is equally hard to see the US president backing down if Iran does not comply.
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Airstrikes, therefore, seem increasingly likely at the very least.
Will that strengthen the Iranian people’s effort to topple their government? Or conversely will it give the government in Tehran the excuse to impose even more punishing repression. Impossible to say. We have not been here before.
It is high noon once again in the region, fingers are on the trigger and one misstep could lead to repercussions which will be felt beyond the middle east.
