Something concrete and unarguable has emerged from the diplomatic turbulence generated by Donald Trump’s attempts to end the war in Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine has become Europe’s war – in fact, it is unlikely to be America’s problem for long.
The Trump administration’s 20-something-point peace plan, as shepherded by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, is going nowhere.
When presented with the proposal on Tuesday, a Russian negotiator said President Putin made, “no secret of our critical and even negative attitude toward a number of elements.”
But the words of the Russian leader himself are more instructive. In a belligerent speech made on the same day, he threatened to “cut Ukraine off from the sea entirely” in retaliation to a series of attacks on Russian-linked oil tankers.
This is not a man thinking about doing a deal. Putin is the obvious obstacle.
None of which will have come as any surprise to leaders in Europe and the UK, who did what they typically do when the situation looks grim.
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Britain, France, Ireland, Germany and others have been issuing lofty declarations of the “we’ll support Ukraine as long as it takes,” variety.
But this time it is different. European leaders are going to have to treat Ukraine like the emergency it is – or face the consequences.
Presently, they occupy a position that many see as absurd.
Europe, including Britain, bankroll the Ukrainian government. Funding which was split down the middle with the Biden administration has been assumed by Europe in full. Furthermore, the Europeans pay for all American weaponry through a NATO facility called PURL.
Thus, Europe has got skin in the game – they are paying the bills. But where are they sitting at the negotiation table?
They are not there at all. The Russians do not want them, and the US does not seem particularly keen. When US secretary of state Marco Rubio met a Ukrainian delegation to discuss the peace plan in Geneva, he said he did not know anything about European counter-proposals
“It’s extraordinary that Europe is picking up the bill but struggles to make itself heard,” says Marc De Vore, of St Andrews University. “It shows the lack of vision, coordination and leadership across the continent.”
The former foreign minister of Lithuania, Gabrielius Landsbergis, is utterly exasperated by Europe’s ineffectiveness.
“If you are a European leader asking your team to book you on the next flight to Washington to go talk to daddy, please don’t. Not without a plan, not cap in hand, not humiliating us all in front of the cameras at the Oval Office.
“Europe is our continent, our future is decided here, not there. We aren’t poor, we have options, we can finally decide to assist Ukraine to the full extent…”
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This frustration is shared by the Ukrainians, who have begun to use a different word to describe this relationship – betrayal.
Inna Sovsun is an MP in the Ukrainian parliament. Her husband, a combat medic, is serving at the front.
“People on the frontline feel really disappointed with the whole situation, and it does feel like betrayal.
“The challenge is much bigger than which village will be controlled by whom in Donbas. It is about, what does the future of civilisation look like? Does Russia’s barbaric version win? If you are not willing to fight for that, those values aren’t worth much, are they?”
Unsurprisingly perhaps, analysts and others are sketching out what Ukraine would look like if forced to capitulate. The idea here, is that Europe will not like what it sees.
Picture an unstable nation on Europe’s border with a proxy-Russian leader – or different groups battling for control. The population is restive, with many thousands of men both conditioned and traumatised by war. Millions of refugees seek shelter in Europe.
Economists have tried to put a figure on such scenarios, with one group estimating costs to Europe approaching €3tn euros in additional defence and refugee-related spending if Ukraine is seriously weakened.
For the Europeans, a test of their resolve is already at hand. The EU must agree on a plan to seize up to €210bn euros in frozen Russian assets as a means of funding the cash-strapped government in Kyiv.
The issue is legally contentious, with countries like Belgium, where much of the money is held, fretting about liability. But the Ukrainians see it is a simple question of commitment.
“Given what is at stake, there just has to be stronger political will. That is what is difficult for us to grasp. (They) say all those good things, the right things, but that doesn’t really matter much,” says Ms Sovsun.
