Adam Back says Bitcoin faces no meaningful quantum threat for at least the next 20–40 years, adding that NIST-approved post-quantum standards can be adopted in time.
Adam Back, the cryptographer and cypherpunk cited in the Bitcoin white paper, said Bitcoin is unlikely to face a meaningful threat from quantum computing for at least two to four decades.
Responding to an X user on Nov. 15 who asked whether Bitcoin (BTC) is at risk, Back wrote that “probably not for 20–40 years,” adding that there are already post-quantum encryption standards approved by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) that Bitcoin could implement “long before cryptographically relevant quantum computers arrive.”
The discussion began with a user posting a video of Canadian-American venture capitalist and entrepreneur Chamath Palihapitiya, who predicted that the quantum threat to Bitcoin would become a reality in two to five years. He noted that to break SHA-256 — the encryption standard that Bitcoin relies on — quantum computers would need about 8,000 qubits.
