A significant fall in global greenhouse gas emissions is on the near horizon for the first time, the United Nations (UN) has said, after governments including Britain published new plans on how to cut their climate impact.
Despite years of UN negotiations, emissions soared to record highs last year – driving the hottest global temperatures on record, extreme wildfires in Brazil, and flooding in Valencia.
But new pledges from the likes of China, India and the EU are due to cut emissions by 10% by 2035, compared with 2019 levels, according to the UN’s climate chief.
But the drop could end up being lower, as the analysis includes a US plan published in the final hours of the Biden presidency, which Donald Trump has abandoned.
A significant fall is expected, nonetheless, as countries like China are aiming to overdeliver on their pledges.
“Humanity is now clearly bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time, although still not nearly fast enough,” said UN climate change chief Simon Stiell.
The fall in emissions is aided by the dramatic and rapid rollout of solar and wind power, which this year provided more electricity than coal did for the first time.
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‘Need for speed’
The plans are the homework countries are required to produce to show how they will fulfil their part of the bargain under the Paris Agreement struck in 2015.
The landmark accord aims to limit global warming to ideally 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
This would require emissions to fall by 60% by 2035, far greater than the approximately 10% the UN forecast today.
“While the direction of travel is improving every year, we have a serious need for more speed,” added Mr Stiell.
“The science is equally clear that temperatures absolutely can and must be brought back down to 1.5C as quickly as possible after any temporary overshoot.”
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COP must ‘send clear signal’
Warnings that the world has blown its chances of limiting warming to 1.5C have been growing louder.
Last week, the UK’s climate advisers advised the government to prepare for 2C of warming by 2050.
The new climate plans paint a difficult picture for the UN’s annual climate summit, COP30, which is due to start in Brazil next month.
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The so-called “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) show wildly different levels of commitment between those greasing the wheels of global climate efforts and those throwing sand in the gears.
Many countries missed the deadline or produced half-baked versions.
Mr Stiell said COP30 must “send a clear signal” that countries are “still fully on board for climate cooperation, because it works, but must work faster, and that means achieving concrete and strong outcomes on all key issues”.
