Bitcoin (BTC) jumped back above $110,000 on Monday, erasing part of last week’s slide even as U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted their second-largest weekly net outflows on record ($1.2 billion).
The swift rebound, from lows near $103,700, has traders asking whether the market just completed a “controlled deleveraging” and is now basing for the next advance. Ether reclaimed $4,000 alongside broader crypto green shoots, aided by cooling trade-war headlines and growing odds of additional Fed rate cuts.
Short term, BTC is attempting to hold the $107,000–$110,000 support band. A clean break and hold above $112,000–$115,500 would strengthen the bullish case and set sights on $120,000–$123,000.
Institutions Still Bullish; Rare BTC–Gold Signals Flash “Bottom”
Despite the outflows, institutional conviction looks resilient. A new Coinbase survey found 67% of institutions are bullish on Bitcoin over the next three to six months, citing improving liquidity, robust ETF infrastructure, and stablecoin usage near record highs.
Macro tailwinds are supportive, with markets now pricing in further Fed easing, a trend that has historically redirected capital from cash and money-market funds toward risk assets.
On-chain and cross-asset signals add weight. CryptoQuant’s Joao Wedson flagged rare bottom readings in the BTC-to-gold ratio oscillator, levels that previously preceded strong recoveries.
Separately, JP Morgan’s framework values BTC materially higher versus gold, mapping to a potential $165,000 by 2025 if the relationship normalizes.
Short-term holder MVRV Bollinger signals are also in “oversold” territory, seen earlier at $49,000 and $74,000 before subsequent rallies, supporting the notion that recent weakness was an accumulation phase, not a top.
Bitcoin (BTC) Levels, Risks, and the Road to a New Leg Higher
Technically, Bitcoin bulls want to defend $107,000–$110,000 and flip $112,000–$115,500 into support. Above there, momentum traders eye $120,000–$123,000 and the prior ATH zone near $126K.
Funding and open interest have cooled, reducing the risk of another forced-liquidation cascade. Regardless, skeptics point to rising-wedge overhangs and headline risk (trade tensions, data shocks), while gold’s record run fuels the “digital-gold vs. gold” debate.
The bounce above $110,000, despite heavy ETF redemptions, suggests strong dip-buying and improving liquidity. If macro conditions cooperate and BTC can reclaim the mid-$110,000s with volume, the market may be transitioning from “reset” to re-accumulation, laying groundwork for a fresh bull leg into late 2025.
Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
