Norwegian officials launched an investigation on Oct. 10 into a suspected leak of confidential information after online wagers on this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner surged just hours before the official announcement.
Authorities said the spike in betting activity on Polymarket appeared to indicate insider knowledge of the Nobel Committee’s decision.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado was awarded the 2025 Peace Prize for her pro-democracy efforts, a result that sparked a sudden surge in bets in her favor overnight.
According to reports first published by Bloomberg and local Norwegian media, multiple large wagers were placed on Machado shortly after midnight Norwegian time.
Data reviewed by investigators shows that one user, operating under the handle “dirtycup,” placed about $70,000 in bets and profited roughly $30,000. Two other accounts made similar trades, with the trio earning a combined $90,000 before the announcement.
Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, said the incident “seems we have been prey to a criminal actor who wants to earn money on our information.”
The Nobel Committee, which had finalized its decision earlier in the week, described the suspected breach as a serious violation of its confidentiality standards.
The episode has renewed scrutiny of prediction markets, where users trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes. Advocates argue that the platforms aggregate crowd wisdom, while critics warn that they can enable speculative or illicit behavior if insider information is involved.
Polymarket has previously faced regulatory pressure. In 2022, it agreed to block U.S. users after the CFTC ruled it was offering unregistered event-based contracts. The platform was finally cleared to return to the US earlier this year under the Trump administration.
The Nobel Institute said it will conduct an internal review to determine whether confidential information was accessed or shared unlawfully. Norwegian police have not disclosed whether any criminal charges are being considered.
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