They call Benjamin Netanyahu the Houdini of the Middle East. Can he wriggle out of the straitjacket being prepared for him?
Donald Trump appears to be indicating that time is running out for the Israeli offensive in Gaza.
The Arab and Muslim leaders he met here at the UN General Assembly this week are warning him that his signature foreign policy achievement is in jeopardy because of the war.
The Abraham Accords normalised relations between Israel and the Gulf states, the UAE and Bahrain. But Israeli threats to annexe the West Bank and the relentless campaign in Gaza are threatening to unravel them.
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The Trump team have a 21-point Gaza peace plan. Broadly speaking, it envisions the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces, the release of the hostages, and an international security force in Gaza.
But it also envisions the eventual return of the Palestinian Authority to run Gaza and makes no mention of Israeli settlements. On both points, the plan is at odds with the hopes of Netanyahu’s far-right coalition allies, upon whose support he relies to stay in power.
More than that, judging from his speech at the UN, Netanyahu is in no mood for an end to the war, not yet.
He still wants to “finish off the job”, he says, and is yearning for a “speedy victory”. His generals are less optimistic. Commanders have warned his cabinet that the prospects of total success are limited and there are considerable risks.
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There are political considerations, too, driven by Netanyahu’s survival instincts. The sooner the war ends, the greater the likelihood of Netanyahu’s coalition disintegrating and the prime minister facing the reckoning he has long avoided over his blame for October 7th.
Trump has been more than generous in giving Netanyahu leeway to pursue a campaign Israel’s allies lost patience with months ago.
But Trump has a plan now, and the prospect of a breakthrough will be tantalising for a deal-hungry president. Not to mention the peril facing the Abrahamic grand bargain of his first term in office.
Netanyahu is a magician famous for wriggling out of impossible predicaments. But this may be his biggest test yet.
