Bitcoin is caught in a strange balance. On one side, long-term holders are consistently realizing gains at elevated levels, turning years-old coins into profit at every opportunity.
On the other hand, short-term holders are barely scraping past break-even, showing almost no conviction in taking profits or losses. This two-speed market defines the current environment and helps explain why rallies feel heavy and why pullbacks never quite spiral into capitulation.
Bitcoin price broke above $117,120 on Sep. 18, fueled by volatility from the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut. Despite the volatility that preceded the breakout above $115,000, Bitcoin is up modestly over the past month and nearly 24% higher year-to-date. Underneath that calm exterior is a split story.
Long-term holder SOPR, which measures whether coins older than 155 days are being spent at a profit or a loss, sits at 1.78. That is far above its historical median, meaning mature supply is hitting the market with steady gains.
Meanwhile, short-term holder SOPR, which tracks the profitability of fresher coins, is flat at 1.00. This level is essentially break-even: the average short-term coin spent is being sold for about the same price it was acquired.
This divide between LTHs and STHs creates an imbalance in the way rallies play out. When LTHs sell at a profit, they provide a continuous stream of supply that must be absorbed. If short-term participants also sell at a profit, the market can handle it, as those moments often align with trend expansions, as demand is broad and buyers are eager. But when short-term holders linger at break-even, demand narrows, and long-term distribution presses on the market.
The data from the past two months illustrates this imbalance clearly. In the last 60 days, long-term holders realized profits on 33 separate days, compared to just 16 profitable days for short-term holders. More importantly, there were 17 days when long-term holders sold at a profit while short-term holders sold at a loss. That is the very definition of a two-speed market: one cohort unloading confidently, another struggling to keep pace.
The effect on price is subtle but important. Returns over 30 and 90 days are positive (roughly +3.8% and +13.4%), but the path has been choppy. Each upward move is met with mature coins hitting the market, leaving rallies short-lived. Without stronger participation from short-term holders, these advances feel fragile. Short-term SOPR has shown only brief excursions above 1 and then quickly fallen back, unable to build the kind of streak that signals broad profit-taking momentum.
The SOPR ratio, which divides long-term by short-term SOPR, captures this in a single metric. At 1.77, the ratio is firmly elevated, showing that long holders are realizing significantly more profit per coin than their newer counterparts. Historically, high ratios like this mark periods where the market digests mature supply without the help of fresh buying pressure. Unless that ratio cools, upside runs the risk of topping out prematurely.
Volume trends add another layer. The most recent two weeks saw slightly lower average spot volume compared to the prior two-week period. Price managed to edge higher, but thinner participation raises the risk of false breakouts. Without heavier cash turnover, short squeezes and derivatives-driven rallies can reverse quickly.
The fact that short-term SOPR and price remain tightly correlated (with a 30-day correlation of about 0.64) suggests intraday moves are tracking realized profitability. Still, without breadth, those moves lack staying power.
Bitcoin can grind higher even with elevated long-term selling, but those gains remain tactical. Until short-term SOPR spends sustained time above 1, rallies will lack conviction. The signal to watch is a multi-week stretch where short-term coins are consistently sold at a profit. That would show demand broadening and mark a healthier advance. For now, the structure favors range trading and sharp bursts rather than extended uptrends.
Bitcoin is far from bearish, but it’s constrained. Gains are happening, but are hard-fought because one side of the market is cashing in while the other is barely breaking even. This two-speed structure will continue to shape the tape until either demand broadens or supply cools.
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