The President of the United States continues to give contradictory signals of escalating the war and winding it down within a few weeks.
The odds of the United States invading Iran this year surged to 63% on the Polymarket prediction platform on Sunday, following comments made by US President Donald Trump on social media.
Despite the surge, the odds of an invasion before 2027 are still down from the high of 68% on March 29, due to a US troop buildup in the region and comments from the Trump administration that the United States was considering capturing Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil shipping station.
Volume on that prediction was about $3.74 million at the time of publication.
