Two frustrated teams will square off in Friday’s Hockey East quarterfinal between the fifth-seeded University of Maine’s Black Bears and fourth seed Boston College.
They have both underwhelming seasons but the good news for them is that one of them will be two wins away from an NCAA Tournament berth after Friday night.
And the other will close the door on a forgettable season.
UMaine was picked fourth in the Hockey East preseason coaches poll and BC was fifth so they have flip-flopped positions.
As up-and-down as UMaine’s season has been, the Eagles have had a recent collapse that leaves them in the same situation as the Black Bears: needing to win the Hockey East Tournament to earn the automatic qualifier to the NCAA Tournament.
No at-large bids for either.
BC is currently 18th in the NCAA Percentage Index, which took the place of the Pairwise Rankings this season in emulating the NCAA Division I selection committee’s process for choosing the 16 tourney teams.
UMaine is 20th.
The six tournament champions and 10 at-large teams are picked for the 16-team field.
Boston College was 12th in the NPI last month after winning 10 of 12 games. But they have dropped their last four, and have scored only five goals in those four losses despite having five first and second round National Hockey League draft picks among their 12 total.
Meanwhile, the Black Bears generated some momentum with four wins and a tie in their last five games before laying a massive egg at Vermont. UMaine dropped a 5-3 decision to the worst team in the league: a Vermont squad that had gone 0-6-1 in its previous seven games and had been outscored 34-17.
“It is what it is,” said UMaine head coach Ben Barr.
Barr said his team was “outworked” by the Catamounts.
“We know we are capable of playing better than that, but can we do it? I don’t know,” Barr said. “That’s been the question all year. We’ve shown spurts of it but the other side of it is pretty bad.”
The Black Bears will need to turn things around if they want to keep their season alive.
“We’ve got to flip the coin and find the right side against BC,” Barr added. “We have to find our game.”
He said some of his young forwards are struggling, which limits their ice time and prevents him from being able to roll out four lines out on a regular basis and keep everyone fresh.
“It’s hard to have intensity when you’re doing that,” said Barr.
And there is no help on the way as leading goal scorer Justin Poirier and second-line center Max Scott aren’t expected to play due to injury, according to Barr. Poirier has missed seven games and Scott has missed five.
It appeared as though freshman Mathis Rousseau had won the starting job after turning in solid performances in backstopping four consecutive wins. But Barr noted that Rousseau struggled against Vermont.
So does Barr go with Rousseau or junior Albin Boija, a second team All-American last year who is having a forgettable junior campaign?
Rousseau made 21 saves on the road and shut BC out 3-0 on Nov. 21. Boija had allowed six goals on 27 shots in a 7-3 loss the previous night.
Boija hasn’t played since he made 20 saves in a 3-3 overtime tie against UConn on Feb. 14.
“Good question,” Barr said when asked who would start in goal on Friday. “We have to figure that out this week.
Whoever begins the game in net, Barr will need to have a quick hook if the starter gets into trouble early.
Goaltending was expected to be a strength this season but their combined .895 save percentage leaves them in a 37th place tie among the 63 Division I schools.
That is a real concern going into the playoffs where goaltending is even more of a difference-maker than it is during the regular season.
No hockey team wins anything without solid goaltending.
BC freshman Louka Cloukey has a .909 save percentage but he has allowed 10 goals on 64 shots over his last three outings for an .844 save percentage.
Special teams also take on a heightened sense of importance and the Eagles have a decided edge in that department.
Their 27.2 percent power play success rate is eighth in the country compared to UMaine’s 19.2 percent, which is 37th, and BC has an 82.9 percent efficiency rate on the penalty kill (tied for 15th) compared to UMaine’s 79.4 percent, which is 40th.
So staying out of the penalty box will be crucial for UMaine.
The game will be a contrast in styles.
The Eagles, with high-scoring Boston Bruins first-round draft choices James Hagens and Dean Letourneau up front, will look to play a fast, uptempo kind of game while UMaine will try to physically grind the Eagles down on the forecheck.
To make a basketball analogy, UMaine prefers a half-court offense while BC likes to employ a full-court press.
It should be pointed out that both can play the opponents’ style of hockey to a degree but would prefer their own style.
BC is the higher seed and will get the last line change. But the Eagles are one of many Hockey East teams that play better on the road, going 9-5-4 away from Conte Forum and just 7-8 at home.
UMaine is 5-7-2 on the road.
UMaine is the defending Hockey East Tournament champion and will be determined to defend that title.
The Black Bears also know if they win, the TD Garden in Boston will be inundated with UMaine fans for the semifinals and the championship round, should they make it that far.
The Boston stadium turned into “Alfond South” a year ago, and that supplied UMaine with a home ice advantage.
It should be an intriguing night in Chestnut Hill.
