Vows by Iran to punish the US and Israel for killing its supreme leader and starting a war have yet to translate into decisive military action despite the first American casualties.
Iranian forces have launched hundreds of drones and missiles in multiple waves across the Middle East, but without inflicting significant harm against American assets in the region, such as sinking a warship or destroying a base.
By contrast, American and Israeli strikes have already devastated regime targets in Iran. They have taken out the head of the regime, Ali Khamenei, as well as the army’s chief of staff, General Abdol Rahim Mousavi, and defence minister General Aziz Nasirzadeh.
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Then again, it is only day two of the war and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has pledged “severe, decisive and regret-inducing punishment”.
Yet the more time that passes without this rhetoric becoming a reality, the greater the questions about whether Iran’s most feared military forces still have the capability to locate, target and strike the US and Israeli warships and jets attacking them.
General Sir Richard Barrons, a former senior UK military officer, said a number of factors would likely be limiting Iran’s options for manoeuvre, not least the loss of so many top leaders.
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Any move to fire missiles would also expose the launch site to American and Israeli attacks from the air, meaning Iran’s missile launchers would have “quite a short” life expectancy.
In addition, previous attacks by both the US and Israel against Iran over the past couple of years have already degraded its missile stockpiles, launchers and air defences to blunt the regime’s ability to detect incoming enemy aircraft.
All of this could explain why so few US and Israeli military targets appear so far to have suffered much meaningful damage despite Iran firing hundreds of missiles and drones.
Though the full extent of any damage is unclear.
UK Defence Secretary, John Healey, warned that a wounded Iran still has the capacity to cause harm – just potentially in even more erratic ways with little regard for the impact on the millions of civilians who live across the Gulf.
“This regime is lashing out. It’s lashing out in an increasingly indiscriminate and widespread way,” he said, speaking to Sky News’s Sunday Morning with Trevor Philips.
“And people will be really concerned that it’s not just military targets, but civilian airports like Kuwait, hotels in Dubai and Bahrain are being hit.”
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Countries so far impacted include Israel, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Iraq, where a number of American bases are located.
Many of the munitions appear to have been intercepted, but falling debris can be deadly.
With so much metal flying around, civilian and tourist locations have been caught in the crossfire, including one of the world’s busiest airports in Dubai, where all flights have been halted, and the entrance of a luxury hotel.
This would have been terrifying for those affected but these strikes appear to have done nothing to degrade the ability of the US and Israel to keep hitting Iran.
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A high-value target for the regime must surely be two American aircraft carrier strike groups, led by the USS Gerald R Ford and the USS Abraham Lincoln.
They’re thought to be located south of Cyprus.
An attempt to hit these warships might explain why the UK says two Iranian missiles were fired in the direction of the Mediterranean island. Britain has bases on Cyprus but they are not thought to have been the focus of the attack.
General Barrons said an outmatched Iran on the battlefield might seek alternative ways to strike back such as by closing the Strait of Hormuz – a vital transit point for global oil and gas exports.
Disruption to this shipping lane would impact economies around the world – and it is already starting with tankers being targeted, including off the coast of Oman.
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President Trump is gambling that Iran lacks the capability to resist his overwhelming firepower. And that may well be the case.
But it only takes one Iranian missile penetrating American air defences to alter that calculation or at least dramatically increase the cost to Washington of its war.
