Not going backwards is a win. Given Donald Trump’s fraught relationship with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, that’s important.
The Mar-a-Lago meeting did not materially move things forward but nor was there a bust-up like that Oval Office moment in February.
There were however some notable takeaways.
First, Zelenskyy‘s facial expressions.
At times he looked exasperated – like when Trump made light of a profoundly important negotiation by talking about the Mar-a-Lago food and the physique of the Ukrainian leader’s generals. Playground stuff.
There was a memorable moment when Zelenskyy’s poker face fell away. He shrugged, then laughed as Trump said: “Russia wants Ukraine to succeed.”
What a profoundly stupid thing for the American president to say. Look at Vladimir Putin’s actions. Listen to his words.
It’s hard to know sometimes whether Trump is just ignorant, tuned out of the detail, or actually in Putin’s pocket. Zelenskyy probably has a view but managed, just, to hold his decorum.
Beyond the spectacle of Zelenskyy’s face, there were some other important moments – if only because they will act as markers when Trump shifts his position, as he has so many times.
On US security guarantees, Zelenskyy seemed reassured that Trump’s America would provide some sort of military backdrop – to counter renewed Russian aggression in the future. But neither leader spelled out what that would look like.
Ukrainian sources have told me that Trump’s commitment to back his support for Ukraine with security guarantees is a key point (never mind the fact that Trump did this months ago and then backtracked).
The same sources have also said that Trump’s apparent willingness to go to Ukraine and address parliament there, which he articulated today for the first time, is a positive commitment.
Let’s see if he sticks to it, or shifts again, and on the security guarantees.
The most articulate moment from the meandering and confused news conference came from Zelenskyy when he charted progress with percentages.
He said:
So, that confirms Zelenskyy has accepted US commitments on security guarantees but shows that more work is required to pin down some elements in US-Europe security co-operation.
That’s key because it involves the prospect of European troops on the ground in Ukraine. It’s a Russian redline – and Trump knows that.
It’s easy to get lost in all this: the progress, the positions, the multi-point plans and the spin.
But remember a few fundamentals. First, Trump may want this war to end, but he doesn’t care how it happens. Second, Putin has shown no genuine signals that he wants the war to end. Third, Ukraine doesn’t want to be forced into a subjugating surrender.
A few weeks ago the Americans produced a 26-point plan. It amounted to a Russian wish-list.
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Since then, the Ukrainians, with the Europeans and co-ordinating with the Americans, have refined it. It’s 20 points now, and within it are plenty of Ukrainian concessions.
Europe and Ukraine now expect Trump to focus the pressure back on Moscow and to engage Vladimir Putin in a way that moves him.
Don’t hold your breath.
