These numbers show how it’s getting harder to live in rural Maine

Politics
Our political journalists are based in the Maine State House and have deep source networks across the partisan spectrum in communities all over the state. Their coverage aims to cut through major debates and probe how officials make decisions. Read more Politics coverage here.

Maine consistently ranks as one of the most rural states in the nation, with more than 60% of the population living far from a major city.

This has caused cultural and economic differences between the more densely populated south and the quieter north for the state’s entire history. Governors have talked about the problem of people leaving the state for more than 160 years. While Maine saw a notable population bump during the COVID-19 pandemic, it did little to alter dour demographic trends.

In some respects, the divide has gotten wider in the past decade or so. Here are four measures that show the ways rural areas have fallen behind more urban ones during that timeframe.

Population declines are worst in rural rim counties.

Southern Maine is growing, while some rural counties in the state are losing population. That area saw the greatest population growth, with York County topping the charts with a population increase around 9%.

Three overwhelmingly rural rim counties in Maine experienced population decline between 2013 and 2023, according to federal data. Aroostook County saw the biggest decline at a roughly 4% drop in population during that time. Washington County fell by 2%, and Somerset County had a smaller decline.

That means fewer young people and fewer families in the area as aspiring professionals uproot for education and higher-paying jobs elsewhere. The trend is likely to continue — the state’s estimates for the next decade anticipates that many small towns will lose population by 2032.

These places also are falling behind in this affordability measure.

That drain costs rural Maine’s economy. Wealth has increased everywhere in Maine over the past decade or so, but that hasn’t come evenly. The change in personal income per capita — adjusted for inflation — shows the greatest increase in Cumberland County, with the lowest increase in the western Franklin County.

But the divide between urban and rural is less clear in incomes than in population growth. The midcoast, long an escape for the wealthy, has seen significant increases in income per capita despite their low density. Piscataquis County has lower incomes but has seen relatively high income growth.

There are cost advantages to living in rural areas. For example, the housing affordability crisis that has taken a heavy toll on southern Maine has been less severe. As of last year, average homes remained affordable to typical families in Aroostook, Franklin, Penobscot, Piscataquis, Somerset and Washington. But that is only one part of the picture.

“The fact that the economy is kind of weaker there means there are fewer job opportunities for folks, and so they’re leaving to go elsewhere, whether that is other places in Maine or out of state,” said James Myall, an analyst at the liberal Maine Center for Economic Policy.

Maine’s student population is falling off a cliff while an old state ages.

Across the developed world, birth rates have declined. Baby boomers are retiring while student populations dwindle, putting strain on local budgets. Maine may be a bellwether for states dealing with this phenomenon with the highest median age of any state in the nation.

It’s getting older. Across the state, every county but Androscoggin marked a decline in the number of public school students between 2015 and 2025. This is likely to force thorny consolidation discussions in communities from cities to the rural areas in Franklin and Hancock counties that saw the biggest hits.

Simultaneously, Mainers are going gray. By 2032, the state economist predicts that more than a third of the populations in Knox, Lincoln, Piscataquis and Hancock counties will be 65 or older. It will mean an ever-increasing proportion of the state on fixed incomes and in need of elder care services. Rural Mainers experience unique hardships as they age.

The striking demographic trend will force conversations around funding medical and educational services in Maine, with rural Mainers seeing some of the highest need for improvements. Social isolation, exacerbated by limited transportation and spotty internet infrastructure, will be hurdles.

“The disparity between what a person living in an urban area, what a person in a rural area can access is really quite, quite wide,” said Noel Bonam, the director of AARP Maine.

Daniel O’Connor is a Report for America corps member who covers rural government as part of the partnership between the Bangor Daily News and The Maine Monitor, with additional support from BDN and Monitor readers.

Read Entire Article