At the United Nations, there was broad agreement about the Trump plan for Gaza. The Americans heralded the resolution as a key step forward in securing precious peace. Even the Russians, who had put forward a rival resolution, decided to merely abstain.
On paper, it looks convincing. Thirteen votes in favour, none against and the two abstentions of Russia and China. But that isn’t the whole story.
The challenge is that the people who actually fought the war aren’t quite as happy.
Israel goes along with most of it but is adamant that there should be no road to Palestinian statehood. That desire was inserted into the resolution to placate some countries who felt that too much power was being put into the hands of Israel and America.
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But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it abundantly clear that he will allow no such thing. And the reality is that, were Netanyahu to lose his job at next year’s elections, he’s incredibly unlikely to be succeeded by anyone with a very different take on the subject. So, while the resolution might say there’s a path towards a two-state solution, it’s hard to find that path running through Israeli politics.
Then there’s Hamas, which objects, just as vehemently, to the idea that foreigners will not just be running Gaza, but will also be maintaining its security and taking responsibility for disarming Hamas itself.
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Clinging to a shred of optimism
There is still more we don’t know than we actually do know. Who will make up this stabilisation force, what mandate it will follow, how much influence will be exerted by the UN, who will pay for the rebuilding and how the much-heralded Board of Peace will work – including the role of Tony Blair? When, and how, will Israeli troops leave? What happens if the remaining deceased hostages are not returned? When will humanitarian aid really start flooding into the region? What will actually happen to Hamas? And so, so many more questions beyond that. The list stretches to the horizon.
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It is easy to be overwhelmed by it all, but there are those here clinging to a shred of optimism. The resolution has been passed and that means the ongoing engagement of America, which many see as the key to ongoing peace.
The number of American military personnel, as well as diplomats and private sector employees, now actively planning for Gaza’s future runs into many thousands. The optimistic logic runs that, so long as the US is planning for peace rather than war, then peace – shaky, transactional, pragmatic and unpredictable as it may be – is to be welcomed.
