Prediction markets show waning confidence in Trump’s tariff authority, with both Kalshi and Polymarket traders bracing for limits on executive power.
Prediction markets are signaling declining confidence that the US Supreme Court will rule in favor of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff powers, with traders on regulated and crypto-native platforms reducing their exposure following the week’s developments.
US-regulated event-market platform Kalshi showed Thursday that traders now assign a 29% chance that the Supreme Court will side with Trump, a 28-point drop in a single day.
On Polymarket, Kalshi’s onchain competitor, where contracts are settled in USDC (USDC), the odds fell to 25%, reflecting a similar collapse in sentiment.
