WASHINGTON — The first major Election Day since President Donald Trump returned to the White House started off well for Democrats.
And while a debate about the future of the Democratic Party may have only just begun, there are signs that the economy — specifically, Trump’s inability to deliver the economic turnaround he promised last fall — may hurt the Republican Party for the foreseeable future.
A Democrat won the Virginia governor’s race in one of the two biggest contests Tuesday. New Jersey was the only other state electing a governor this year.
Trump was largely absent from the campaign trail, but the GOP candidates closely aligned themselves with the president, betting that his big win last year could provide a path to victory this time, even if the party occupying the White House typically suffers in off-year elections.
At least in Virginia, they were wrong.
Democrats are hopeful that strong showings could provide the party a pathway back to national relevance — even if its top candidates have taken very different approaches, from adhering to a moderate line to wholeheartedly embracing government spending to improve voters’ lives.
In New York City, a self-described democratic socialist who already has been a target of Trump’s criticism could emerge as a national star if elected mayor. And California voters will decide whether to redraw the state’s House map, as Democrats look to counter a push by Trump to reshape the balance of congressional power.
Here’s some top takeaways:
A new Democratic playbook emerges
Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger will become Virginia’s next governor — and its first female chief executive — after running a campaign focused largely on the economy, public safety and health care. She actively distanced herself from some of the Democratic Party’s far-left policies.
Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill adopted much the same approach in New Jersey’s governor’s race.
A growing collection of Democratic leaders believe the moderate approach holds the key to the party’s revival after the GOP won the White House and both congressional chambers last year.
Above all, the Democrats in both states focused on rising costs such as groceries, energy and health care, which Trump has struggled to control.
In addition to tacking to the middle on economic issues, Spanberger and Sherrill downplayed their support for progressive priorities, including LGBTQ+ rights and resistance against Trump’s attack on American institutions. Spanberger rarely even mentioned Trump’s name on the campaign trail.
Both also have resumes that might appeal to the middle.
Spanberger is a former CIA case officer who spent years abroad working undercover, while Sherrill spent a decade as an active-duty helicopter pilot for the Navy before entering Congress. Both played up their public safety backgrounds as a direct response to the GOP’s attack that Democrats are soft on crime.
It’s (still) the economy, stupid
Trump and his Republican allies have been especially focused on immigration, crime and conservative cultural issues.
But voters who decided Tuesday’s top elections were more concerned about pocketbook issues: the economy, jobs and costs of living that have remained stubbornly high. That’s according to the AP Voter Poll, an expansive survey of more than 17,000 voters in New Jersey, Virginia, California and New York City suggesting that many voters felt they can’t get ahead financially in today’s economy, even if their own personal finances were stable.
Ironically, the same economic anxieties helped propel Trump to the White House just one year ago. Now, the economic concerns appear to be undermining his party’s political goals in 2025 — and could be more problematic for the GOP in next year’s midterm elections, which will decide the balance of power for Trump’s final two years in office.
That’s even as Trump regularly brags about stock prices booming and boasts about leading a new renaissance of American manufacturing.
About half of Virginia voters said the economy was the most important issue facing their state while most New Jersey voters said either taxes or the economy were the top issue in their state. Just over half of New York City voters said cost of living was their top concern.
It was unclear whether kitchen table concerns weighing so heavily on voters might help break the impasse that has prompted the government shutdown, which has spanned more than a month.
Democrats in Congress are demanding an extension of expiring tax credits that have helped millions of people afford health insurance, while Republicans have refused to negotiate until the government is reopened. Voters across the country said the cost of health care was important, but generally not as much as core economic concerns.
A referendum on Trump?
The president did not set foot in Virginia or New Jersey to campaign with Republican gubernatorial candidates Winsome Earle-Sears or Jack Ciattarelli, but both contests will likely be viewed as a referendum on Trump’s job so far.
The president endorsed Ciattarelli in New Jersey’s governor’s race but held only a pair of tele-town halls on his behalf, including one Monday night. Trump also did a Monday night tele-town hall for Virginia Republican candidates, but he did not mention Earle-Sears, speaking mostly in favor of the GOP candidate for attorney general.
Earlier in the campaign, Trump gave Earle-Sears only a half-hearted endorsement, saying he supported the GOP candidate for governor though he did not use her name. Earle-Sears was nonetheless a fierce defender of Trump, just as Ciattarelli was in New Jersey.
Despite Trump’s distance, his policies — including his “big, beautiful” budget bill and his massive cuts to the federal workforce — played a central role in Virginia, New Jersey and even New York City’s mayoral contests. And the Republicans in each refused to distance themselves from the president or his agenda.
A bad night for the GOP would give Democrats a strong — though perhaps fleeting — start heading into midterms that are still a year away.
Story by Steve Peoples and Will Weissert.
