The government shutdown has blown through missed paychecks, mass firings and threats of delayed public benefits. It will soon be voters’ turn to help bust through the impasse.
In less than two weeks, closely contested statewide elections in New Jersey and Virginia will offer the first serious test of the electorate since President Donald Trump began his second term. If the shutdown does not end before then, returns will come in on the day it matches the 35-day record.
Whether the people’s voice will matter is another question entirely. Lawmakers of both parties said in interviews they were skeptical that the election results would move them or party leaders off their firmly entrenched positions. Many said they expected the outcome to only validate their priors.
“I don’t think any Democrats here are looking at the shutdown in the context of the margin of victory in Virginia,” said Rep. James Walkinshaw, a Democrat who represents the state’s close-in Washington suburbs. He predicted a Democratic victory could force Republicans to change course, not his own party.
Those predictions are underscored by the vanishingly small role the shutdown has appeared to play in both states as early voting begins. Rep. Jeff Van Drew, a Democrat-turned-Republican from south New Jersey, said the shutdown will have at most “a tiny tangential effect” in his state.
“If they’re smart, they realize no one gains or loses a lot from it,” he said of the two gubernatorial contenders — Republican businessman Jack Ciattarelli and Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill.
Even in federal-worker-heavy Virginia, the shutdown has been subsumed by a larger clash over Trump’s sharp-elbowed approach to cutting government spending and its impact on government jobs. A recent Washington Post-George Mason University poll found only 1 percent of respondents ranked the shutdown as the most important issue in that state’s elections.
The disconnect between the standoff in Washington and the attitudes of voters could scramble how the off-year elections are interpreted. Typically, they are seen as bellwethers for presidents and their parties.
Coming off their 2016 shock loss to Trump, Democrats were buoyed by big victories in New Jersey and Virginia in 2017. Republicans were hopeful during President Joe Biden’s first term after flipping the Virginia gubernatorial mansion and coming close in New Jersey. This time, the political lessons could be muddled.
It’s possible there could be a split result in the two gubernatorial races. Democrats see the shutdown and the Trump administration’s mass layoffs of federal workers as turbocharging their efforts in Virginia, where Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger is banking on a Trump backlash and tying Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears to his administration’s dramatic cuts.
“Federal workers feel like this administration has been literally abusing them for months,” said Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.). “There is huge amounts of fear.”
Trump has been a major factor in New Jersey, especially after the president took aim this month at a key infrastructure project relied on by New York City commuters. But cost-of-living concerns have also been front and center. And in running to succeed two-term Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, Sherrill is working against the Garden State’s political gravity: No party has held the governor’s mansion for more than three terms consecutively since 1961.
Even within each state, there could be mixed results. In recent polls, for instance, Spanberger has run ahead of Democratic attorney general candidate Jay Jones, who has been dogged by the public release of text messages where he fantasized about the death of a prominent Republican and his family.
Nov. 4 will also see the climax of a high-profile mayoral race in New York City and a closely watched California ballot measure that would allow a redraw of congressional lines in the state. Neither result will map neatly onto the shutdown fight and will compete for attention with the big governors’ races.
Taken together, that has left partisans on both sides comfortable saying they have no plans to reconsider their positions on what could become the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.
“No matter what happens politically in Virginia or New Jersey or elsewhere, Democrats will continue to stay the course in our efforts to deliver for the American people,” said Rep. Rob Menendez (D-N.J.).
“If Democrats had not voted to shut down the government, there would have been no furloughs or layoffs,” said Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) in a statement. She added that Democrats currently on the ballot “must now own the obstructionist values of their D.C. colleagues who remain focused on catering to their far left base instead of working for the American people.”
So far this month, lawmakers have cited conflicting polling showing that voters are blaming the other party for the shutdown. Most national surveys show the electorate closely divided on the blame game, with a small plurality saying Republicans are most at fault. House Democrats were recently heartened by internal polling of key swing districts from early October showing a modest increase in their candidates’ prospects against generic Republicans.
But polls are no substitute for elections, and on Nov. 4, lawmakers will see the most reliable measure of voter sentiment in two of the most populous states in the country. There are more than 18 million residents in New Jersey and Virginia combined, accounting for about 5 percent of the total U.S. population.
Sen. Chris Van Hollen, a Democrat whose home state of Maryland sits between New Jersey and Virginia, predicts that the results of the two gubernatorial races will be “a referendum on the Trump administration,” at least in part.
“And I think that people are going to come out and show their strong disapproval of the way Trump is conducting himself, including the shutdown,” he said.
But others had their doubts that there would be any lessons to glean that could help bring a historic standoff to an end.
“State elections are state elections,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii).
Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) was even more blunt: “I don’t know what affects the shutdown, honestly.”
Katherine Tully-McManus contributed to this report.
