Lucy Powell’s had quite the political comeback. Sacked from cabinet by the prime minister but weeks ago, she’s back with her own powerbase and voice at the top of the party as the deputy Labour leader.
She was not Keir Starmer‘s choice and, while the prime minister was quick to embrace her on Saturday as the result was announced, he is probably right to feel some unease about the outcome for a few different reasons.
For in Powell, the party has a new, alternative figurehead that sits outside of the government machine.
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She ran a campaign in which she pledged to be the voice of the membership to the leadership and the membership picked her. She will have serious influence on the National Executive Committee, and sit in the political cabinet.
What she won’t do is return to the cabinet table, which means that she has power and profile, but will remain an independent voice, free from collective cabinet responsibility.
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As I understand it, Powell doesn’t want to destabilise the leadership – for now at least.
She will take a submarine approach when it comes to interventions around government policy rather than offering a running commentary on Starmer’s government and choose her battles.
That way, when she does weigh in, she is harder to ignore.
She could also over time become a lightning rod for discontent should the party’s fortunes remain as parlous as they are now.
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On Friday, Labour suffered a cataclysmic defeat in the Caerphilly by-election, coming third in a seat it has held for over a century as Labour endured their biggest ever drop in support in a Welsh by-election.
It’s a terrible omen for next May’s Sennedd election. Labour have been the governing party in Wales since the Senedd’s beginning in 1999. That could be about to change.
When I asked Keir Starmer about the loss on Friday, he didn’t try to deflect, saying: “I’m deeply disappointed by the results.”
When I asked him if it was a gut punch, he said: “I’m not going to suggest otherwise. I spoke to the first minister on Saturday morning, and clearly we need to reflect and regroup, and double down on the delivery, in Wales. And we clearly need to do much more.”
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Powell’s position now is that the party needs to pull together, get campaigning and try to build support with their voters.
But she is equally clear that this has to be down to delivery of the “national renewal” Labour promised voters in the election of 2024.
There will surely come a point, further down the road, where this new deputy leader will become more robust in her critique of the government if it fails to deliver and the party suffers.
This race has also exposed the ugliness in a party that is uneasy with its leadership and seems intent on infighting.
The constant briefing wars that emanate from Number 10 cascade down in what has been, at times, a dirty fight.
Lucy Powell accused Bridget Phillipson’s team of “throwing mud” and briefing against her in the Labour deputy leadership race on our Electoral Dysfunction podcast, while Phillipson also said she was at the sharp end of vicious smears.
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For all the talk on Saturday for coming together and unity, it is hard to see that materialising while doubts persist over Starmer’s leadership and while rivals, such as Powell’s close ally Andy Burnham, are waiting in the wings.
There is also the big question of apathy. Only 16.6% of party members, trade union members and affiliates chose to vote in this election, against 59% in 2020.
This is partly distorted because in the last leadership election, members were voting for both the leader and deputy leaders. But what it also suggests is disengagement from the wider Labour movement.
In 2020, there were 552,000 party members eligible to vote, out of a total membership which stood at 782,000, including union-affiliated members who are perhaps less likely to cast a vote.
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This time around there were 970,000 eligible voters – but the Labour Party did not reveal how many actual party members cast a vote.
This might be because membership figures are dropping, and it didn’t want to reveal that information. At the end of last year, party membership stood at 332,000, which is around 200,000 members less than the end of 2019.
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For now, Powell insists that she and Starmer will work as a team and the message from both Powell and the PM following her victory is that all of those party must put its shoulder to the wheel to try and see off the threat of Reform.
She is undoubtedly starting out as the party’s campaigner in chief, but I suspect she may become a far more critical – and dangerous – voice, if Starmer looks like he can’t get the party in good enough shape to win the next general election.
