In a result that was never in doubt, Catherine Connolly will become Ireland’s 10th president, with an overwhelming victory.
That’s the headline, but there’s so much more to unpack here.
This was possibly the least enthusiastic presidential contest in Irish history. Voters here are used to six or seven candidates, with a diverse range of views, fighting it out in often chaotic debates.
This time round, there were just three. Then two.
Fianna Fail’s Jim Gavin pulled out after one of the worst campaigns in recent history, leaving a two-horse race between independent Connolly and former cabinet minister Heather Humphreys.
Humphreys, popular within Fine Gael, failed to make much of a connection with the electorate, and the party had privately accepted her fate weeks ago.
The constitutional obstacles to getting on the ballot – that kept the likes of disgraced UFC fighter Conor McGregor at bay – also prevented several credible conservative candidates from competing.
That led to a concerted “spoil the vote” campaign by activists, and many listened.
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Last time out, just 1.2% of ballots were spoiled.
This time, it seems likely the number will be 10 times that. In certain working class areas, we saw boxes containing more than 50% of ballots marked spoiled. That’s a staggering amount.
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Lack of choice
Along with the perennial cartoons of male genitalia, there were anti-government comments scrawled on ballots.
Angry commentary on the lack of choice in the tiny field, and anti-government slogans on issues like immigration were a regular feature.
Many stayed away. Many who didn’t stay away spoiled their vote.
Humbling election
Most who cast a valid vote didn’t vote for the Fine Gael candidate. There’s no doubt this has been a humbling election for the coalition Irish government.
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Deputy prime minister Simon Harris, the Fine Gael leader, showed up at the results centre at Dublin Castle, sounding contrite and magnanimous in defeat.
Ivan Yates, a former Fine Gael minister and podcaster, told me the backlash within Fianna Fail (the largest party) over the shambolic Gavin campaign, was so strong that it actually threatened to topple Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin.
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“A political earthquake” was how an opposition party leader, Peadar Tobin, described it to Sky News.
It’s in the opposition’s interest to leverage the presidential election – for an important but ultimately symbolic office – into something that might actually exert real political pressure on the government.
But it’s also fair to say that Micheal Martin may have a troubled night’s sleep.
