In theory and according to international law, Hungary should arrest Vladimir Putin the moment he steps foot in Budapest for his meeting with Donald Trump.
That won’t happen though.
Putin is wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges issued in 2023 for the abduction of children in Ukraine during Russia’s invasion.
Although Hungary is a member of the ICC – a founding member no less – it is in the process of withdrawing from the global body, having accused it of being a “political court”.
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The ICC has no enforcement mechanism and relies on member states to take action so Hungary, which could and probably will just decide to ignore the court’s arrest warrant, has no doubt given the Russian president assurances he will be safe in Budapest just as they did when another leader wanted for war crimes, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, visited the country last April.
Neither Russia nor the United States are signatories to the court either, so it is a convenient location for the Trump-Putin meeting to discuss the situation in Ukraine that was announced on Thursday night.
It would be the first known trip to an EU country by Putin since the war began in February 2022.
However, actually getting to Budapest might not be so straightforward for Putin.
Unless he flies a circuitous route over Turkey and through the Balkans, Putin will need to pass through the airspace of European countries who might consider forcing his plane down – Poland, Romania or the Baltic states for example.
It’s that kind of risk, however unlikely, that led Mr Netanyahu to fly around Spain and France on a recent trip to the UN General Assembly in New York.
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Putin did travel to an ICC member, Mongolia, last year and he has been to North Korea and China, neither of whom are part of the global court – otherwise, he has largely remained inside Russia, paranoid, surrounded by an ever-decreasing circle of advisers.
You can hide from an arrest warrant at home, but step outside and the world suddenly becomes a hostile place.
