When Will The Crypto Bear Market Start? Could Bitcoin Peak on Oct 24?

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If history repeats itself, the current crypto bull market could be nearing its end, with the next bear market expected to begin in 2026.

Analysts cite rising market volatility, renewed U.S.-China trade tensions, and record-breaking crypto liquidations as potential accelerators for the downturn.

On-chain data suggest the current Bitcoin bull run is in its final phase. According to Cycle Peak Countdown, 1,058 days have passed since the last cycle low, meaning the cycle is 99.3% complete, with just 0.7% remaining. The statistical target for the top is October 24, 2025 just 10 days away.

Bitcoin Cycle Signals Peak Approaching

This timing aligns with historical patterns, where major cycles experience a pre-peak shakeout. Bitcoin’s recent drop to $111K from the October 6 high of $126.3K represents a 12% pullback, flushing out weaker hands before the euphoric peak. This cycle signals both risk and potential upside.

Additionally, Bitcoin is 543 days post-halving, placing it well inside the historical 518–580 day peak window where previous tops have occurred. Combined with sentiment and technical resets, the market is deep in the statistical heart of the current bull cycle.

Average True Range (ATR) expansion shows higher volatility, while mixed signals between short-term and long-term trends suggest late-cycle coiling, a typical pre-peak pattern.

Institutional activity shows smart money taking profits before retail FOMO kicks in. BTC ETF flows flipped from +$627M inflows to -$4.5M outflows, and ETH ETF outflows hit -$174.9M.

On-chain metrics also reflect cooling, with NUPL dropping to 0.522 and MVRV falling to 2.15. Despite these pullbacks, miners remain profitable, creating a foundation for the final euphoric leg of the bull cycle.

Despite a weak October, with BTC down -2.09% MTD versus a historical average of +19.78%, analysts argue this underperformance may actually be bullish. Historically, a muted October often precedes explosive moves in the final 2–3 weeks of the bull cycle, especially when global markets like gold and equities are performing strongly.

Key Factors That Could Trigger the Next Crypto Crash

Previous bear markets were often triggered by overleveraged platforms or exchanges, such as the 2022 FTX collapse. Experts now warn that the next crash could originate from large Bitcoin treasury firms or heavily leveraged lending platforms.

During such events, forced liquidations drive prices down, creating panic among retail investors and reducing overall market liquidity. Recognizing these risk factors early can help investors navigate the volatility more effectively.

Also Read :
Bitcoin Price Stays “Just Fine” But Are Treasury Companies Falling Behind?
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Critical Dates to Watch

Key upcoming dates for Bitcoin’s cycle include:

October 19: Peak window opens
October 24: Target top (10 days away)
October 27: Monday after target
November 20: Peak window closes

The statistical sweet spot for a potential final surge is October 20–November 5, making the next 10 days critical for determining whether the bull cycle has ended or one last leg remains.

How Low Can Crypto Go in 2026?

Even if Bitcoin tops soon, historical patterns suggest a severe bear market could follow. Bitcoin has often dropped 70–80% from its cycle peaks, while altcoins have seen declines of 90% or more. Excessive leverage and forced liquidations could push prices lower than expected, making preparation crucial for long-term investors.

While the next bear market may not mirror past cycles exactly, preparation is essential. Reducing leverage, holding cash reserves, and keeping an eye on technical and on-chain indicators like Bitcoin dominance will help investors survive the downturn.