The budget may still be more than six weeks away, but rumours of U-turns and changes are already in full swing.
Over the last few days, there have been multiple reports that those inside Whitehall are considering tweaks to the controversial inheritance tax (IHT) reforms on farms announced this time last year.
Plans to introduce a 20% tax on estates worth more than £1m drew tens of thousands to protest in London, many fearing huge tax bills that would force small farms to sell up for good.
Now there are reports the tax threshold could be increased from £1m to £5m (£10m for a married couple) – a shift that would remove smaller farms from being liable to pay.
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Senior figures in farming have long believed a rise could be the solution to save the smaller farms and it would satisfy most.
However under the proposals, the 50% relief on IHT would be removed for farms above the new threshold.
That means bigger farms, responsible for producing a large amount of produce in our supermarkets, could bear the brunt of the tax burden with the Treasury potentially increasing revenues.
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Two senior farming figures told me today that while a threshold increase is welcome, it does nothing to solve an “insolvable” problem.
Read more: What’s the beef with farmers’ inheritance tax?
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Big farms have more land to sell, but then they become smaller farms and either produce less, or even divide up, to avoid the tax entirely.
Richard Cornock runs a small dairy farm in south Gloucestershire, which has been in his family since 1822.
He hopes to pass it on to his son Harry, who is now 14 and training to become a farm manager.
“I’ve been under so much stress like most farmers worrying about this tax,” he said. “And I really hope they do push the boundaries on the thresholds, because the million pounds they propose at the moment is ridiculous.
“It’s been on my mind the whole time to be honest. I even looked into getting life insurance to insure my life and I can’t get it because I had a heart condition. And that was one way I thought I might be able to cover my kids…”
We paused our chat as he was too upset to continue – an illustration of the stress farmers like him have been under over the last 12 months.
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The government says it won’t comment on “speculation” about any possible changes, but it has previously defended the IHT reform, saying most estates would not pay and that those who will be liable can spread payments over a decade.
Labour is under pressure to do something to appease the angry farmers, a rural vote that turned from the Conservatives at the last election.
I ask Richard whether any tweak or row back on IHT will restore faith in Labour?
“The damage has been done,” he says.
