We are in the endgame. Nearly exactly two years since the Hamas attacks of 7 October 2023, it looks like we are on the brink of a breakthrough.
The diplomacy of the past 12 hours has been head-spinning and uniquely Trumpian. Assuming everything holds, this is Donald Trump‘s success. It is the consequence of his unorthodox style, his ability to call the shots and crucially his willingness to do so now.
The tragedy is that it could have happened many months ago. But that doesn’t make it any less significant a moment now.
Word came from Hamas late afternoon on Friday Washington time that the group had responded to Mr Trump’s 20-point plan for peace in Gaza, which he unveiled at the White House on Monday.
Within minutes, the US president had posted the Hamas response on his own social media. It was clear from the wording of the Hamas statement that it was by no means an unequivocal acceptance of the 20-point plan.
But then, via his press secretary, again on social media, a clear indication that the US president was reading the Hamas statement as an acceptance of his deal even though, in black and white, it falls short of that.
“President Trump responds to Hamas’ acceptance of his Peace Plan,” Karoline Leavitt wrote.
Hamas had basically said “yes, but” to Mr Trump 20-point plan, and yet intriguingly Mr Trump was choosing to take it as an acceptance of his plan.
Then, moments later, the president spelt it out, again on social media, and with game-changing demands – not for Hamas, but for Israel.
A remarkable statement
“Based on the Statement just issued by Hamas, I believe they are ready for a lasting PEACE. Israel must immediately stop the bombing of Gaza, so that we can get the Hostages out safely and quickly! Right now, it’s far too dangerous to do that. We are already in discussions on details to be worked out. This is not about Gaza alone, this is about long sought PEACE in the Middle East.”
This was a remarkable statement and represents a huge moment. Neither Mr Trump, nor Joe Biden before him, has ever asked this of Israel before. The American president was telling Israel to stop; to stand its military down and to bring this war to an end. Extraordinary.
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For the first time in this two-year war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in a corner. President Trump has put him there.
Mr Trump and his team know that the Hamas response does not yet commit to disarmament and it does not yet agree to fully disband – both conditions of the 20-point plan. But Hamas does commit to releasing all the hostages now. And for Mr Trump, who wants this over, that’s enough.
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The word from Israel overnight is that Mr Netanyahu did not expect the US president to take this position because he sees the Hamas response as a rejection of the 20-point plan.
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On Monday, Mr Netanyahu said Mr Trump was the best friend Israel had ever had. But Mr Trump is not an ideologue. He is pragmatic, he is a deal-maker, he wants to further his Abraham Accords, he wants to be a winner, and he wants the Nobel Peace Prize.
He can also see where the chips are falling. His 20-point plan has unanimous support across Europe and among Muslim majority countries, which all seem to accept that Hamas as an organisation is over.
Israeli attack on Hamas in Qatar was pivot point
Public opinion is also a factor. The number of Americans with an unfavourable view of Israel and its Gaza policy has been steadily rising.
President Trump’s own view of Mr Netanyahu’s Israel has also evolved. The two men have never actually been close. And the Israeli attack on Hamas negotiators in Qatar last month really angered Mr Trump and his advisors. They saw it as a clear undermining of the Gaza negotiations. It was a pivot point for Mr Trump.
The diplomacy behind the scenes, through the Qatari government mediators and others, has been intense, particularly this past week. The challenge has been to persuade the military wing of Hamas, in Gaza, to get to the position outlined in their statement.
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Mr Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, told me on Monday: “I am hopeful, I really am. All the stakeholders in this want to see it happen and the president believes it is going to happen and he is dug in.”
I was sceptical. Maybe I was wrong to be. Still, there are huge immediate challenges in the hours and days ahead.
But the overnight news that the Israeli Defence Forces have shifted to defensive operations is a huge development.
There is a genuine momentum for peace right now. This could be the moment.
