XRP ended Q3 2025 with a 31% rally, climbing from $2.20 in July to $2.92 by September’s close, marking one of its best quarters in years. The bullish quarterly candle was the first decisive close above long-term resistance since 2017, fueling optimism that the asset could mirror its historic breakout pattern.
Analysts like Mikybull argue that XRP’s multi-year inverse head-and-shoulders breakout sets up potential upside toward $4.70 in the near term and even higher targets over the longer cycle.
CTO Exit Sparks Mixed Signals for XRP Investors
Caution has returned to the XRP community after Ripple’s Chief Technology Officer, David Schwartz, unexpectedly left.
His departure has caused a split among traders: some see his final remarks as a subtle hint at XRP’s long-term potential to compete with Bitcoin, while others view it as a warning to secure profits following the token’s strong Q3 rally.
Adding to the uncertainty, several early investors on X, like Crypto Bitlord, have echoed “time to sell” calls, arguing that the recent surge could trigger a bout of volatility before institutional ETF-driven inflows materialize.
ETF Hopes Push Against Sell-Side Pressure
One of the strongest bullish drivers remains the increasing likelihood of an XRP spot ETF approval. The SEC is reviewing multiple applications, including Grayscale’s, with decisions expected between October 18 and November 14.
Prediction markets now price the approval odds at over 99%, suggesting that institutional capital could soon flood into the asset. Analysts believe that a green light could push XRP to $20–$30 by 2026, especially if inflows mirror the surges seen in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs earlier this year.
On-chain data also supports accumulation, with exchange reserves decreasing, indicating that tokens are moving into self-custody and staking pools. Meanwhile, open interest has grown to $1.4 billion, although options activity remains thin, leaving leveraged longs vulnerable to corrections if resistance holds.
Technical Picture: $2.96 Breakout or $2.70 Retest
Currently, XRP trades at $2.94, holding above the 200-day SMA at $2.50 while facing resistance at the 50-day SMA ($2.96). Support is in the $2.70–$2.80 range, with deeper downside risk if sellers push toward $2.50.
Momentum indicators remain neutral, with the RSI at 47, indicating room for accumulation before a significant move.
If XRP closes multiple days above $2.96, analysts expect confirmation of a new rally, targeting $3.65 in the short term and $4.70 as the next major resistance. Not breaking resistance could lead October to stay in consolidation, with November being the next breakout attempt.
Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD chart from Tradingview
