Bitcoin’s options market has split into two very different regimes: a near-term tape that looks locked in place by dealer hedging, and a year-end setup that seems built to let price roam.
Bitcoin price around $113,500, down from the August peak near $119,000, but still higher than where it was in early July. That puts it squarely inside the short-dated option structures expiring this week, where mechanics take over and flows have to fight hard to push the market in either direction.
Oct. 1 is the perfect example. The gamma curve shows a steep ridge between $113,000 and $115,000, while the delta profile flips hard in the same zone. That combination means market makers are most sensitive to price changes right in that range, and their hedging naturally pulls the market back when it tries to wander.
Unless someone brings heavy spot or perpetual futures buying or selling, the tape tends to get pinned there. It’s why options traders talk about “gravity” levels around major expiries: hedgers aren’t trying to call direction, they’re mechanically keeping books balanced, and the net effect is that volatility gets smothered.
However, a bit further down the calendar, the picture changes significantly. Dec. 26 is where the largest chunk of open interest on Deribit lives, yet the gamma for this expiry is flat. A flat gamma surface means dealers don’t have much sensitivity to small moves; they aren’t forced to keep adjusting deltas as price ticks around.
That makes the market more path-dependent: if Bitcoin rallies, there’s less resistance from hedgers slowing it down, and if it sells off, there’s less support from hedgers catching the fall. Combine that with the sheer size of notional expiring at the end of the year, and it’s a recipe for a higher-volatility window when directional flows can run without the mechanical airbrakes.
This is also evident in the strike distribution. Calls are stacked at $119,000, $124,000-$130,000, and again at $150,000 and $170,000. Beyond that, there’s a speculative tail all the way to $320,000-$400,000. Puts are concentrated between $80,000 and $111,000, with a heavy ridge around $105,000-$111,000. That’s the battlefield the market has drawn.
Right now spot is below the first big call shelf at $119,000 and above the dense put zone in the low $100,000s. The put/call open interest ratio is just 0.37, so upside structures dominate.
Traders are betting on breakouts rather than paying for crash insurance, which means that if spot punches through $119,000, hedgers will need to start chasing deltas higher into the $124,000-$130,000 corridor. Conversely, if spot drifts lower into $108,000-$111,000, the puts that sit there decay in value and help writers absorb the flow, slowing downside unless fresh selling arrives.
That asymmetry is what makes the Dec. 26 expiry stand out. Calls dominate the board, and the absence of a strong gamma ridge gives rallies cleaner air once resistance levels fall.
On the downside, support is softer: without a wall of protective puts further down the ladder, breaks below the $105,000-$111,000 zone would need new risk-off demand to keep momentum going. It sets up a market where near-term pinning can flip into year-end chasing, and where the calendar becomes the trigger as much as price itself.
Light exposure in the very short weeklies after Oct. 1, heavy concentration again at Oct. 31 and Dec. 26, then a secondary bulge in March 2026. These dates are where liquidity rolls, hedgers reposition, and volatility either compresses or expands. It means October is the lull, and the second half of Q4 is the storm.
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