The Red Sox have started their key, final road trip of 2025 with four wins in five games while other teams, like Houston and Detroit, have continued to falter. With that backdrop, Boston might be able to eliminate all of the drama from the final weekend of the year by clinching a postseason spot Thursday.
With Boston beating Toronto, 7-1, and the Athletics besting the Astros, 6-0, later in the night, the Red Sox’ magic number to clinch a playoff berth is 1. The schedule is set up so that the Red Sox might have already punched their ticket for October before taking the field Thursday night at Rogers Centre.
Boston will clinch a postseason berth with either an Astros loss to the A’s (that game starts at 3:35 p.m. ET in West Sacramento) or a win over the Blue Jays at 7:07 p.m. ET when Boston goes for a series sweep behind righty Brayan Bello. The Blue Jays moved Shane Bieber back to Friday, so reliever Louis Varland will start for them as an opener.
The Red Sox (87-71) have a three-game lead over Houston (84-74) with four games to play. Boston also has a two-game advantage on Detroit for the No. 2 wild card spot.
One more Red Sox win or one more Astros loss would send the Red Sox to the postseason for the first time since 2021. That said, there’s a reasonable chance that Alex Cora’s group will be popping champagne north of the border Thursday night.
Key takeaways on the race
Toronto’s loss coupled with another Yankees win means that those two teams are tied for the American League East lead. The Red Sox, who are three games back of both clubs, have not been eliminated from the division race. It’s obviously a very uphill climb with four games to go and the Jays holding the tiebreaker over Boston.
Similarly, it’s very tough to envision the Red Sox passing one of those two clubs to get the first wild card spot (and home-field advantage in a Wild Card Series). The Red Sox have a two-game lead on Detroit for the second AL wild card spot, which would pit them against the top wild card team in the league.
Wednesday’s results did little to tip the scales on Boston’s first-round opponent. If things ended now, the Sox would take a trip to New York, to face the Yankees, who currently hold the first wild card spot (Toronto has the tiebreaker for the AL East). Trips to New York, Toronto and Cleveland — and Detroit, to a lesser extent — remain in play for the Sox. That will all be decided over the weekend. Boston won’t travel to Seattle for the first round.
In a bizarre way, the Red Sox might have less to play for in the final series of the season than all of their potential Wild Card Series opponents. That could lead to a massive advantage.
If the Yankees and Blue Jays are dueling for the AL East title (and a bye) while the Tigers (playing at Fenway) and Guardians are battling for the AL Central (and home field advantage in the first round), those teams will all be incentivized to keep trying to win games in the final series. By Friday, there’s a good chance the Red Sox will be locked into either the No. 2 or No. 3 wild card seed, which is a negligible difference (unless the club feels one opponent is a much-better matchup than another).
Why could this matter? The Sox could pull Lucas Giolito from his scheduled start Sunday and instead go with a bullpen game (or a spot starter from Triple-A). That would line Giolito up to be available for a potential Game 3 of the first round behind ace Garrett Crochet (Game 1) and Bello (Game 2). Or the club could have Giolito go in Game 2 and Bello (with an extra day of rest) in a potentially decisive Game 3.
The Tigers, for example, would be forced to throw Tarik Skubal on regular rest Sunday if there’s still something on the line. Toronto might have to throw Kevin Gausman against the Rays. Cleveland might have to pitch its best starter, Gavin Williams. Boston might get the chance to face a team that doesn’t have its pitching lined up perfectly.
Story by Chris Cotillo, MassLive.com.
