There is something peculiar about the Chinese government that makes its targets very different to those in countries like Britain.
That quirk gives analysts some hope after it’s “timid” announcement on the green transition – and as Donald Trump yesterday condemned climate change as a “hoax”.
The good news is that China has, for the first time, made a commitment to cut its greenhouse gas emissions. It’s a landmark moment.
In a video statement to the UN in New York, President Xi Jinping vowed China would cut emissions by 7-10% by 2035, while “striving to do better”.
But it is still “critically short” of the roughly 30% believed to be necessary from the world’s biggest greenhouse gas polluter and clean tech superpower, analysts said.
Juan Manuel Santos, former president of Colombia and chair of The Elders, a group of global leaders founded by Nelson Mandela, said: “China’s latest climate target is too timid given the country’s extraordinary record on clean energy – both at home and through its green partnerships with emerging economies.”
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China also chose not to say when it thinks its emissions will peak – allowing plenty of time for them to keep rising before they then fall.
But here’s why all is not lost – far from it.
In the West, targets are often aspirational. They are knowingly optimistic, sometimes wildly so, because the purpose isn’t necessarily to hit them.
Instead, they are designed to provide some certainty to investors, energy companies, local authorities and so on about where the country is headed, stimulating them all to kick into gear.
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‘Taking targets seriously’
The Chinese work differently. In fact, they have a record over under promising and over delivering on climate targets.
Why?
“In China’s top-down political system, setting and evaluating targets is a key means through which the central government manages the country,” says Zhe Yao from Greenpeace Asia.
“As a result, there is a strong political culture of taking targets seriously. This mentality means policymakers usually take a realistic approach to setting targets rather than treating them as aspirations.”
Just look at their wind and solar rollout: meeting a target of 1,200GW by 2030 six years early.
Today they pledged to more than double today’s capacity of around 1,400GW to 3,600GW by 2035 – rates many countries can only dream of. There are other targets China has missed – such as to “strictly control” coal power – but still that record gives analysts hope.
Another ray of light is the fact that it was delivered by Xi himself – this is perceived as the commitment being more serious than if it was delivered by anyone else.
And “striving to better” sounds weasley, but suggests they aim to overachieve, and again should be taken more seriously from President Xi than perhaps we would from other leaders.
US and EU fall short
China is far from alone in disappointing with its pledge, made as a part of its latest five-year climate plan (known as nationally determined contribution or NDC), something all countries are doing this year as per the Paris Agreement.
The US government under Trump has ditched climate action altogether. The EU, which thinks of itself as ambitious, failed to come up with its own plan on time, effectively coming to the UN this week with an “I Owe You” instead.
With other leaders faltering, there was less heat on Beijing to step up.
Even the 10% reduction in emissions will “still put the world on a pathway to catastrophic climate impacts” says Kate Logan, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
So let’s hope this target will not just be hot air, but another one for cautious China to overachieve.
