While Britain and America were engrossed in the pageantry and diplomacy of a US presidential visit last week, another event pretty much went unnoticed in most Western capitals – and it could have a profound impact on geopolitics.
The “Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement” was signed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on 17 September.
Seen as an “Islamic NATO” in the making, at its core is the clause that “any aggression against either country, shall be considered an aggression against both”.
Article 5 of NATO states the same, and is the cornerstone principle of collective defence that binds members of the alliance.
If an ally is attacked, each member will consider it an attack against them all and will take action to help. This clause has often been cited since Putin’s war on Ukraine.
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have a longstanding relationship, with Pakistan willing to defend the holy sites of Mecca and Medina as Shia Iran threatened the Kingdom.
The new pact between Sunni Saudi Arabia, a country considered the heart of the Islamic world, with Pakistan – the only Muslim nuclear nation – is bound to set a new order.
Pakistani defence minister Khawaja Asif said “the deterrence that we get from nuclear weapons, and what we have, and the capabilities we possess, will be made available to Saudi Arabia according to this agreement”.
Pakistan has also not ruled out other Islamic nations joining the coalition and its deputy prime minister, Ishaq Dar, said “other countries have also expressed a desire for similar arrangements”.
The signing took place a week after Israel launched airstrikes against Hamas officials discussing US ceasefire proposals in a Qatari government complex.
The unprecedented attack in Doha has shattered the illusion of American reliability in the region for rich Arab and Gulf countries.
Israel’s menacing military strikes – in Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Qatar – have precipitated the idea of a protective nuclear umbrella of their own.
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Major blow for India
A cash-strapped, politically unstable and quasi-military Pakistan, willing to share its weapons, is a win-win for both countries.
It’s a coup for Pakistan because a client like Saudi Arabia puts it centre stage in the Islamic world, with its credibility sky high and the potential for more patrons.
It has also dealt a major diplomatic and security blow to nuclear arch rival India, against whom it’s fought multiple wars and clashes.
Relations between Saudi Arabia, Gulf nations and India have improved considerably over the years.
But the concern is, would the pact automatically bring these nations into Pakistan’s corner if there was a conflict with India.
After the deadly clashes between the two countries in May, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi said “we have merely suspended our retaliatory actions against Pakistan’s terrorist and military targets for now”.
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India’s foreign ministry said it would “study the implications for national security and regional and global stability”.
It added: “India and Saudi Arabia have a wide-ranging strategic partnership which has deepened considerably in the last few years. We expect that this strategic partnership will keep in mind mutual interests and sensitivities.”
However, there will be worry and concern in the Indian establishment as its nemesis has prized open a door which they hope does not become a chasm.
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The Indians will be hoping the pact remains one of just political solidarity and doesn’t transform into unconditional war guarantees.
India’s diplomacy faces huge challenges; it has been singled out by President Trump for a punitive 25% extra tariff for buying discounted Russian oil, taking the total to 50%, one of the highest in the world.
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Relations with China have also been very difficult over the years, while ties between Pakistan and China have strengthened into an all-weather friendship.
The Saudi-Pakistan deal aims to expand military cooperation, joint exercises and intelligence sharing to counter threats, terrorism and cross-border insurgencies.
It also covers the transfer of technology and co-production of military equipment between the countries.
This pact could change the course of the Middle East as Pakistan’s 170 warheads provide the Kingdom with a deterrent that might later expand to cover other countries – an Islamic NATO with potential to reshape the world.
