Bitcoin’s security may need an upgrade sooner than many expect, according to Anatoly Yakovenko, co-founder of Solana.
Speaking at the All-In Summit 2025, Yakovenko warned there is roughly a 50/50 chance of a major quantum-computing breakthrough within the next five years and urged the Bitcoin community to start shifting to quantum-resistant signatures now.
Quantum Risk On A Short Timeline
According to reports, Yakovenko argued that advances in quantum hardware — helped along by rapid progress in AI — could reach a point where current cryptography used by Bitcoin becomes vulnerable by about 2030.
He recommended migrating away from Bitcoin’s existing signature scheme, ECDSA, toward algorithms designed to resist quantum attacks.
Bitcoin Uses Signatures That Could Be Targeted
Bitcoin transactions rely on ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) to prove ownership.
Based on technical warnings from many researchers, a powerful enough quantum computer running algorithms such as Shor’s could, in theory, break those signatures and expose private keys tied to addresses that have revealed their public keys.
That is the vulnerability Yakovenko highlighted.
Experts Offer Mixed Timelines
Other voices in crypto put the timeline farther out. Reports show Adam Back of Blockstream thinks quantum machines that can threaten Bitcoin are likely decades away — he has cited a figure near 20 years.
Some figures, like Samson Mow, suggest a longer window as well, while newer commentators warn the risk could arrive much sooner if breakthroughs accelerate.
The split in views reflects real uncertainty about when — not whether — quantum will matter for blockchains.
What A Fix Would Mean In Practice
Moving Bitcoin to quantum-resistant signatures is possible, but it is not small work. Based on analysis across industry pieces, such a shift could require major protocol changes, widespread wallet updates, and careful rollout plans to avoid breaking existing addresses or exposing users during the transition.
Some proposals include one-time migration tools and new address types, but none is a simple flip of a switch.
On Action And Urgency
Based on reports, Yakovenko’s main point was urgency: begin testing and building a migration path now, not later.
He noted Bitcoin’s strengths but stressed that preparation would protect users and preserve trust if quantum capabilities arrive faster than many expect.
Industry coverage has already circulated his remarks, prompting renewed discussion across developer forums and research groups.
What Happens Next
For now, Bitcoin developers and node operators face a choice between steady, cautious research and faster, coordinated engineering to prepare for several possible futures.
Yakovenko’s estimate — a 50/50 chance in five years — is far from a consensus, but it has pushed the debate back into public view.
Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
