A mass prisoner release for sanctions relief.
That’s the latest trade Donald Trump has made and it’s with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
It came after surprise talks in Minsk between US officials and the man often described as Europe’s last dictator.
We knew the two sides were talking – previous contacts led to the release of leading opposition activist Siarhei Tsikhanouski in June – but a prisoner release this big was unexpected.
Some 52 detainees of various nationalities, including the UK, were freed in what is the biggest pardoning of political prisoners so far by Lukashenko, who has ruled Belarus for 31 years.
It’s far short of the 1,300 prisoners whose release Trump has been calling for since a phone call with Lukashenko last month.
But it’s a massive moment for a country where all forms of dissent and political freedoms have been practically wiped out.
Similarly seismic is the lifting of some sanctions on the Belarusian national airline Belavia.
It’s only limited – allowing it to buy spare parts and service its fleet – and simultaneously benefits an American business in Boeing, but it’s nevertheless symbolic.
The first permanent removal of US sanctions, on either Russia or Belarus, since the invasion of Ukraine.
So what does it mean?
From Alexander Lukashenko, it’s a sign that he wants to rekindle relations with the West after years of crippling sanctions.
But don’t expect any further prisoner releases to happen quickly. Political detainees are his bargaining chip – free them all and he loses his leverage. It’ll be a drip feed.
For Donald Trump, it could be an attempt to get closer to Vladimir Putin.
Lukashenko is a close ally of the Russian president and could provide a strategic back-channel through which to apply pressure on the Kremlin when it comes to peace talks.
But it could be more selfish than that, and merely his latest attempt to secure the Nobel Peace Prize.
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After all, Trump only raised the issue of Belarusian prisoners with Lukashenko last month, after receiving a plea from Dmitry Bolkunets, an exiled opposition activist, who told the US president he would nominate him for the Nobel prize if he was successful in liberating any prisoners.
Either way, the timing is curious to say the least.
It comes only a day after the incursion of multiple Russian drones into Polish and NATO airspace. According to Warsaw, some of the drones were even launched from neighbouring Belarus.
This is further evidence, as if it’s needed, that Trump is willing to ignore the noise, and the norms, in pursuit of his deal-centric diplomacy.
