What was Russia’s intent? That’s the pivotal question as Poland and its NATO allies consider their response to drones violating its airspace.
The Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, said “a huge number” of Russian drones entered its airspace, and those that posed a direct threat were shot down.
He’s now consulting both the NATO chief and his partners.
They will be assessing whether this was a deliberate targeting of Poland and, if so, why?
Tusk has said he thinks it was “likely a large-scale provocation”.
Ukraine war latest: Drone incursion was intentional, says NATO
In essence, Russia was deliberately testing the West and NATO’s response.
The Ukrainians seem to agree with this assessment, as does the vice president of the EU Commission.
If correct, that’s a serious escalation.
So, what now?
One option is for Poland to trigger NATO’s Article 4, which allows it to consult other members when it believes its security is threatened.
Poland and some of its allies used this option following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022.
It considered triggering it again later that year when a missile killed two people in a Polish border town until it became clear it was likely a Ukrainian air defence missile.
Another response is to further reinforce border defences.
The EU defence minister has said “we must urgently develop a drone wall along the entire EU eastern flank”.
The EU is already preparing a 19th sanctions package.
It will be looking to the US to follow up on its threats of tougher sanctions as well.
“By entering Polish airspace with attack drones, Russia is testing not only Poland but also the United States as NATO’s main deterrent force,” tweeted Marko Mihkelson, chairman of Estonia’s foreign affairs committee.
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NATO will discuss the situation at a meeting on Wednesday and decide how it wants to respond.
It must strike a careful balance between a firm reaction to this suspected test of its resolve and avoiding an escalation in the ongoing war.
