The unprecedented Russian drone attacks on Poland are both a test and a warning. How Europe and NATO respond could be crucial to security on this continent.
The Russians are past masters at what’s called “salami slicing”. Tactics that use a series of smaller actions to produce a much bigger outcome that otherwise would have been far more provocative.
The Kremlin is probing the West with gradual but steady escalation. A British Council building and an EU installation are bombed in Kyiv; a senior EU official’s plane’s GPS is jammed.
On their own each provocation produces nothing more than rhetoric from the West – but new lines are crossed and Russia is emboldened.
Ukraine war latest: NATO chief sends message to Putin
Putin is good at this.
He used salami slicing tactics masterfully in 2014 with his “little green men” invasion of Crimea, a range of ambiguous military and diplomatic tactics to take control. The West’s confused delay in responding sealed Crimea’s fate.
He has just taken a larger slice of salami with his drone attacks on Poland.
They are of course a test of NATO’s readiness to deploy its Article 5 obligations. Russia has attacked a member state, allies believe deliberately.
Will NATO trigger the all for one, one for all mechanism in Poland’s defence and attack Russia? Not very likely.
But failing to respond projects weakness. Putin will see the results of his test and plot the next one.
Expect lots of talk of sanctions but remember they failed to avert this invasion and have failed to persuade Russia to reverse it. The only sanctions likely to bite are the ones the US president refuses to approve, on Russia’s oil trade.
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So how are the drones also a warning? Well, they pose a question.
Vladimir Putin is asking the West if it really wants to become more involved in this conflict with its own forces. Europeans are considering putting boots on the ground inside Ukraine after any potential ceasefire.
If this latest attack is awkward and complicated and hard to respond to now, what happens if Russia uses hybrid tactics then?
Deniable, ambiguous methods that the Russians excel in could make life very difficult for the alliance if it is embroiled in Ukraine.
Think twice before committing your troops there, Russia is warning the West.
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There is more Europe could do.
It could stop buying Russian energy, which it is still astonishingly importing – more than 20 billion euros a year at the last count.
It could use its massive economic advantage (20 times that of Russia’s, and that was before the war) to do more to fund Ukraine’s defence.
While it continues to do neither, expect more excruciating slices of the salami to come.
