Bloomberg Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) analyst James Seyffart shared his perspective on the long-awaited altcoin season and how it may differ from previous cycles following the boom of Digital Asset Treasuries and institutional adoption.
Altseason Already Here?
In a recent interview with Jay Hamilton from Milk Road, James Seyffart, senior analyst and ETF expert at Bloomberg, reaffirmed his stance that the four-year cycle theory has “lost a lot of value,” at least for this cycle.
“I’m one of those people not necessarily saying this time is different, but I don’t think we’re going to, you know, peak in later this year and then drop 80%. I just don’t think that’s going to happen anymore,” he stated.
The analyst previously explained that with institutional adoption and treasury companies, the cycle’s amplitude will reduce significantly, adding that this theory has gotten “muted” and “It won’t be as strict as on the money, where everything collapses in November or December.”
During the Thursday interview, he affirmed that, unlike the previous cycle, the market appears to be experiencing what could be considered a “corporate” altcoin season, driven by institutional adoption, Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATCOs), and Initial Public Offerings (IPOs).
Seyffart considers that DATCOs are “taking a lot of steam” from any potential traditional altcoin season, as “they’ve been on absolute fire.” Based on this, he suggested that in the short term, the highly anticipated altcoin season is occurring on public markets through institutions:
The thing is, I just think right now this market is becoming a little more institutionalized (…). I just don’t think altcoins are going to run in the same way it has in years past. Largely because the money that’s mostly driving the performance of things like Bitcoin and ETH right now is institutional money.
Altcoin ETFs Demand Won’t Match BTC, ETH
The ETF expert asserted that neither institutional money nor the long-awaited approval of multiple altcoin-based ETFs will fuel a rally like the BTC or ETH-based products had at launch, despite the evident interest in the investment products.
“Anyone who thinks like, ‘oh, Bitcoin ETFs took in 40 billion, (…) XRP ETF is going to take in the same amount’ or whatever. That’s just not how this is going to work. These are longer tail assets,” he added.
Recently, Canary Capital CEO Steve McClurg claimed that the XRP spot ETFs could hit $5 billion worth of inflows in their first month. He pointed out that after BTC, XRP is the most recognized token among Wall Street investors, which could drive significant adoption from the start and even outperform Ethereum ETFs.
Seyffart explained that there will be demand for the altcoin-based investment products, and “there will probably be multiple products for each of these assets to do well.” He pointed out that they will not capture the same institutional capital as Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, “but they’ll be trading vehicles.”
However, the Bloomberg analyst expects basket products that combine multiple assets to attract significantly more interest from institutional capital, arguing that investment advisors prefer asset diversification.
